Weekly Market Updates

Zencargo Market Update: 31st October

Oct 31, 2022

Are improvements to schedule reliability on the horizon?

While shipping rates on a global level continue to fall there are promising signs for improved schedule reliability. Following the fallout from numerous ‘black-swan’ events, shipping rates have been declining rapidly and carriers have blanked sailings in an effort to balance supply and demand. 

As a result of these measures, as well as ongoing port disruptions from strike action and covid restrictions, schedule reliability nosedived at the beginning of 2021 and has failed to recover. 

However recent findings from Sea Intelligence indicate that schedule reliability is on the rise as Q3 recorded 44% of vessels arriving within one calendar day of the scheduled arrival, marking a 7.1% increase from Q2 levels. This also indicates the first time since the pandemic that schedule reliability has seen a year on year improvement, up 9.3% from Q3 in 2021.  

In other news, although rates on major trade lanes from Asia continued to fall this week, it is a far less aggressive drop than seen in previous weeks, with transpacific trade only dropping 3%. This has led to speculation that the market could be stabilising and that the “new normal” is on the horizon.

With this in mind Zencargo is offering a free 1:1 rate strategy consultation to help shippers navigate these tumultuous times. Click here to book now.

China

Ocean

  • China’s factory activity fell in October as the official purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing fell to 49.2 this month.
    • This decreased  from 50.1 in September. 
    • Sub-indicators on factory employment, production, new orders and supplier delivery time all decreased in October compared to September
    • According to sources, this was mainly down to frequent Covid outbreaks around China.

Air

Central China to USA and Europe

  • Rates have increased from SHA to Europe as many flights have been cancelled on this trade lane. 
  • From SHA to the USA, rates have increased slightly. 
  • From NGB to Europe, rates are stable this week and have decreased slightly to the USA.

North China to USA and Europe 

  • The air freight market is stable this week from TSN to Europe and to the USA, and November may see rates increase slightly much like during the same period as last year.
    • Air China, Lufthansa and Singapore airlines have passenger flights that can provide spot rates for dense cargo to Europe.
    •  Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways and Cathay Pacific can provide spot rates for dense cargo on their passenger flights to the USA. 
    • Korean Air and Asiana Airlines can provide earlier estimated time of arrivals on their freighter flights.
  • From PEK to Europe and the USA, rates have increased as space has become tight.
    • Available carriers from PEK to the USA include Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways and Cathay Pacific.
      • Due to less available services some airlines are uploading less volume or have even cancelled or rescheduled their flights.
  • From TAO to Europe and the USA, rates have remained the same compared to last week.
  • Compared to last week, rates have remained the same from CKG to Europe and have increased slightly from CKG to the USA.

South China to USA and Europe 

  • Rates are expected to increase from the beginning of November from CAN to Europe and the USA.
  • From SZX to Europe and the USA, the market is stable and rates can be negotiated with carriers on a case-by-case basis. 
  • From XMN to Europe and the USA rates have remained the same compared to last week.
USA

Ocean

  • The Port of Los Angeles reported its worst September for imports since 2009.
    • The import figure for September 2022 is 345,575 TEU, a drop of 14.8% compared to the previous month. 
    • Total throughput at the Port of LA reached 709,873 TEU. This was down 11.8% compared to August. 
    • Volumes at this port have been affected by falling consumer demand and the transfer of port calls from the US West Coast to the East Coast to avoid potential industrial action on the West Coast.
  • The Port of Oakland also recorded a 7.9% loss on total loaded container volume in September.
    • A total of 132,599 TEU passed through the port last month, compared to 143,991 TEU in September 2021. 
    • Loaded imports decreased by 4.9% to 77,803 TEU compared to 81,789 the previous year.
Benelux

Ocean

  • The world’s first hydrogen-powered tugboat has arrived in Belgium.
    • The goal is to have the Hydrotug 1 fully operational at the Port of Antwerp during Q1 of 2023. 
    • Port officials have reported that the tugboat can store 415kg of compressed hydrogen and eliminates emissions equivalent to 350 cars. 
    • This investment contributes to the port’s aim of becoming a sustainable, CO2 neutral port.
UK

Ocean

  • Vessel arrivals at the Port of Liverpool have decreased by 55% week-over-week during the week of 11th September.
    • Continuous industrial action at the Port of Liverpool has contributed to this as shippers were potentially avoiding the strike action by diverting their shipments to other ports.
    • Industrial action at the Port of Liverpool is currently underway for two weeks which started from 24th October.
      • We advise you to speak to your freight forwarder or partner to understand whether your shipments have been impacted by the latest strikes.

Road

  • Commercial vehicle production in the UK is at its highest level since 2011 at 11,979 units.
    • Production increased by 53.6% in September and marked nine months of consecutive growth.
    • Overseas demand increased by 70.4%, while production for the British commercial vehicle market grew by 32.9%.
    • Despite a slowing economy, the sector has continued to perform well. 
    • To ensure long-term growth, the sector will need to  stay resilient against inflation and rising energy costs which are impacting the economy. 

European Bank Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

October 31st – Germany*, Hungary, Ireland, Slovenia

November 1st – Austria, Belgium, Croatia, France, Germany*, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain

November 2nd – Belgium*, Lithuania

November 5th – Finland, Sweden

November 9th – Spain 

November 11th – Austria, Belgium, France, Poland

November 15th – Austria, Belgium

November 16th – Germany

November 17th – Czech Republic, Slovakia 

November 18th – Croatia, Latvia 

November 30th – Romania

December 1st – Portugal, Romania

December 2nd – Romania

December 3rd – Spain

December 6th – Finland, Spain 

*Not in all regions

The route ahead

The information that is available in the Weekly Market Update comes from a variety of online sources, partners and our own teams. Click below to learn more about how Zencargo can help make your supply chain your competitive advantage.

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