In Focus: Shipping and the potential fuel crisis
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to cause unprecedented volatility across both air and ocean freight. With this critical chokepoint currently obstructed, global energy markets have seen Brent crude peak past $110/bbl. This continued price volatility is forcing carriers to contend with a projected $35bn increase in collective fuel costs.
In response to escalating overheads and heightened insurance premiums, major ocean carriers and airlines have implemented mandatory Fuel (BAF) and War-Risk surcharges in order to maintain service viability.
To mitigate fuel pressures, the US issued a 60-day Jones Act waiver; however, surging international tanker rates have largely neutralised the cost advantages of foreign-flagged vessels. Simultaneously, the US administration has called for a realignment of maritime security, urging allied nations to assume greater responsibility for the Strait. As these sustained energy costs persist, industry data confirms a measurable decline in global container volumes due to emerging demand destruction.
- While activity has picked up, demand remains relatively soft. Overall space performance is adequate, with market capacity being released under NAC and long-term deals for early April.
- April blank sailing programmes are limited and mostly centralised within the PA/MSC alliance.
- March pricing has been uncertain due to the impact of war and varying carrier approaches to bunker costs.
- Emergency Bunker surcharges have been introduced at varying levels across carriers; several carriers have included them in FAK rates, especially from China, distorting the true freight rate trend.
- Port conditions are improving, and no major reports of worsening congestion have been issued.
- A new PA service network will be released for the second quarter, featuring shorter routes and the removal of Rotterdam (RTM) calls to boost schedule reliability targets.
Central China (SHA/NGB)
- SHA: With the Middle East conflict and increased fuel costs, capacity is concentrated on direct flights and prices are expected to continue rising. Shippers are strongly advised to reserve buffer time and anticipate the risk of delays due to the re-closure of UAE airspace, with all rates needing to be checked case by case.
- NGB: Demand into Germany is increasing, leading to a hot market with tightening space and rising rates. Shippers must reserve buffer time to mitigate the risks associated with the Middle East conflict and check rates on a case-by-case basis.
North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/PEK)
- TSN: The market is tight with rates expected to hold at a higher level, although lower rates are available for shipments accepting longer transit times. Space requires 4-5 days of advance booking, and rates must be checked case by case with cargo details.
- DLC/PEK: Rates with most airlines are holding stable this week but are expected to remain at a higher level overall. Dense cargo can secure spot rates, but volume cargo requires 6-7 days of advance notice and the acceptance of flight splits.
- TAO: The market to the EU is slightly hot with tight space to most hubs and rates trending upward significantly compared to last week. Spot rates remain available for dense and volume cargo, but all shipments must be checked case by case.
South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)
- CAN: Fuel surcharges are increasing daily, meaning base rates are subject to change at any time. Pricing must be checked case by case according to actual flight details.
- SZX: Market demand is trending upward this week; all shipments and deferred services to main EU airports should be checked with carriers case by case.
- XMN: Due to the Middle East conflict, newly published fuel surcharges are driving freight rates upward. Transport and handling operations remain normal, but final pricing is dependent on actual flight checks and will be quoted case by case.
- Overall demand remains low and flat, while market capacity is currently increasing.
- Capacity has increased significantly for the second half of March. Carriers are expected to introduce blank sailings into April as they attempt to balance supply and demand.
- The FAK market has been unclear since the start of the war in the Middle East. Initial plans by carriers to implement substantial GRIs did not proceed, with rates instead holding stable until a delayed GRI was introduced on 20 March. Following this late March GRI, moderate rate increases are now being seen across the board.
- Carriers such as MSC have established new, elevated FAK rates for the US West Coast, US East Coast, and inland routing destinations like Chicago. Additional Emergency Fuel Surcharges and PSSs are being applied for the first half of April.
- MSC will add an Emergency Fuel Surcharge on all Named Account Contracts (NACs) from 9 April due to surging bunker costs, with the upward adjustments for the US East Coast set higher than those for the US West Coast. CMA has also announced a PSS on NACs effective from 1 April, although the exact upward trend figure has not yet been published.
- Uncertainty continues to surround the Transpacific trade lane due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. These operational issues could result in future equipment shortages and increased congestion at major Asian hubs.
Central China (SHA/NGB)
- SHA: Rates to both the US West Coast and East Coast are gradually rising, while freight rates have sharply increased overall due to rising oil prices. Belly cabin capacity remains seriously insufficient due to the slow resumption of work in East China and the impact on China-Japan routes.
North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/PEK)
- TSN: The market is slightly tight with rates holding stable this week, though they are expected to remain at a higher level. Freighter options provide the earliest departure space, but overall space requires 6-7 days of advance booking and case-by-case rate checks.
- DLC/PEK: Rates with most airlines are holding stable this week but are anticipated to stay at an elevated level. Volume cargo requires 6-7 days of advance booking and the acceptance of flight splits, while dense cargo can still apply for spot rates.
- TAO: The market to the US is busy with tight space and rates trending upward significantly to both the West and East coasts. Spot rates are still being released for dense and volume cargo, but must be checked case by case.
South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)
- CAN: Fuel surcharges are rising daily, causing rates to fluctuate. Pricing must be checked case by case according to actual flight dates.
- SZX: The market is operating normally, with rates needing to be checked with carriers case by case for both the West and East coasts.
- XMN: The Middle East conflict has led to newly published fuel surcharges, driving overall costs upward. Final pricing is entirely dependent on actual flight checks and will be quoted case by case.
- Overall capacity and equipment availability currently remain mostly stable, but congestion is increasing across North West Indian ports and Colombo, as these are acting as the primary alternatives to direct Middle East sailings.
- The market can expect port congestion to further increase the longer the Middle East conflict lasts.
- The port of Nhava Shava is currently offering concessions on quay rent and dwell time charges for exporters.
- More carriers are actively investing in Indian maritime infrastructure. Hapag-Lloyd has signed a Memorandum of Intent (MOI) to develop port infrastructure, handle ship recycling, and manage ship registrations. This follows a recent MOI signed between CMA CGM and the Indian government focused on building container vessels and establishing container production.
- Rates for the second half of March are increasing as carriers demonstrate more assertive pricing policies. FAK rates out of North Europe are seeing significant upward adjustments across multiple carriers, with varying start dates affecting levels over the coming days.
- Further rate increases from the North Continent are scheduled to take effect from late March through early April. Rates out of the Mediterranean are also set for significant phased increases throughout April, with some specific routes, such as Genoa, seeing steep hikes.
- Bunker increases are heavily impacting pricing due to this being a headhaul trade.
- Overall demand remains soft but stable, though carrier schedule changes are actively impacting available space. Carriers have closely managed capacity over the past month, making space more readily available to the US West Coast than the US East Coast.
- Network changes responding to demand include the removal of a US East Coast service string and adjustments to port rotations. These capacity adjustments may become more apparent if seasonal activity builds in late March and April, with approximately 14% of all announced blank sailings currently concentrated on the Transatlantic westbound trade.
- Schedule reliability continues to be weak, decreasing by 6.0% to 55.4%. ICL and ACL are currently performing as the most reliable carriers, followed by MSC.
- Continued uncertainty surrounds the US trade war, with ongoing legal actions and the potential for the US administration to apply new tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act.
- European port congestion is generally manageable, though some ports continue to be impacted by slow turnarounds driven mainly by strikes and weather. Specifically, Gdansk is experiencing elevated waiting times due to weather, Antwerp operations were impacted by a mid-March strike, and Le Havre has seen minor delays in vessel turnaround times.
- In the UK, Felixstowe has suffered disruptions, whilst other UK ports have seen only minor weather-related issues.
Antwerp
- PSA 913: Yard utilisation is elevated at 85% to 90%, with reefer utilisation at 75% to 80%.
- PSA 869: Yard utilisation stands at a level of 75% to 80%, with reefer operations at a normal utilisation of 65% to 70%.
- AGW: Yard utilisation has remained increased at 70% to 75%, with reefer utilisation reducing to 60% to 65%.
- AGW (Empties & Cargo): Empties are fluctuating between 55% and 80%, and cargo opening times are now set to 6 days prior to vessel ETA.
Rotterdam
- ECT: The yard remains at an elevated level of 75% to 80% utilisation.
- RWG: Yard utilisation has remained on a critical level of 80% to 85%.
- DELTA II: Yard utilisation is on a low level of 40% to 45%, with reefers operating at a level of 30% to 35%.
- APMT MVII: The yard is currently operating at a higher level of 90% to 95% utilisation.
Ocean
- LA/LB: 0 vessels waiting (no change), with a 7-day dwell on rail terminals due to a backlog of pre-CNY cargo.
- Oakland: 1 vessel waiting (down by 1), with a 6-day rail dwell.
- Seattle and Tacoma: 3 vessels waiting (down by 1), with a 5-day dwell on rail.
- Vancouver: 0 vessels waiting (up by 3), with a 6-day dwell on rail.
- NY/NJ: 1 vessel waiting (no change), with a 5-day dwell on the rail.
- Savannah: 7 vessels waiting (down by 3), with a 2-day dwell on the rail.
Europe Public Holidays
We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.
- 25 March (Wed): Cyprus, Greece, San Marino.
- 31 March (Tue): Malta.
- 1 April (Wed): Cyprus, San Marino.
- 2 April (Thu): Andorra*, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Iceland, Norway, Portugal*, Spain, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Switzerland*.
- 3 April (Fri): Andorra, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, France*, Germany, Gibraltar, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Guernsey and Alderney, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Eire), Isle of Man, Jersey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg*, Malta, Netherlands*, Norway, Portugal, Saint Helena, Slovakia, Spain, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Switzerland*, UK (United Kingdom), Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
- 4 April (Sat): Andorra*, Sweden*.
- 5 April (Sun): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Germany, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Holy See (Vatican City), Iceland, Italy, Kosovo, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
- 6 April (Mon): Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Guernsey and Alderney, Holy See (Vatican City), Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Eire), Isle of Man, Italy, Jersey, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Saint Helena, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain*, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Switzerland*, UK (United Kingdom)*, Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
- 9 April (Thu): Kosovo.
- 10 April (Fri): Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia.
- 11 April (Sat): Bulgaria, Serbia.
- 12 April (Sun): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*, Bulgaria, Greece, Kosovo, Moldova, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine.
- 13 April (Mon): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Transdniestria (PMR).
- 14 April (Tue): Cyprus*.
- 20 April (Mon): Belarus, Moldova, Transdniestria (PMR).
- 21 April (Tue): Belarus.
- 23 April (Thu): Iceland, North Cyprus, Spain*, Spain*, Türkiye.
- 25 April (Sat): Faroe Islands*, Italy, Portugal.
- 27 April (Mon): Netherlands, Slovenia.
- 28 April (Tue): Gibraltar.
24.03.2026
- AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- GR | Greece 16:00 – 21:00
- CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
25.03.2026
- AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- GR | Greece 15:00 – 21:00
- CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
26.03.2026
- AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
27.03.2026
- AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
28.03.2026
- AT | Austria 15:00 – 24:00
- AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- AT | Austria 07:00 – 15:00
- FR | France 22:00 – 24:00
- LU | Luxembourg 21:30 – 24:00
- LU | Luxembourg 23:30 – 24:00
- CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
- HU | Hungary 22:00 – 24:00
- LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
The route ahead
The information that is available in the Zencargo Market Update comes from a variety of online sources, partners and our own teams. Click below to learn more about how Zencargo can help make your supply chain your competitive advantage.