In Focus: Geopolitical impacts on major trade routes

On the Transpacific route, spot rates soared in early June before retreating by more than 60% within weeks. Across the Asia–Europe corridor, carriers have reinstated blank sailings and tightened allocations, pushing headhaul rates steadily higher as we move into July. Meanwhile, Transatlantic westbound rates remain elevated overall, but forward indicators for U.S. East Coast volumes suggest that August levels will come in below those seen in June, signalling an earlier-than-usual seasonal peak.

At the same time, Israel–Iran tensions have prompted Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to suspend calls at Haifa and extend their Suez rotations, adding several days to typical transit times.

Possible threats against the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf airspace closures have further complicated routing decisions and fuelled new surcharges, with Xeneta data showing Shanghai–Jebel Ali tariffs jumping 55% month-on-month.

Ocean
  • Rates have continued to push higher into early July, driven by sustained demand and constrained vessel space.
  • Available lift remains booked several weeks in advance, leaving limited options for late bookings.
  • A notable share of capacity is being redeployed onto Transpacific loops, further tightening headhaul space to Europe.
  • Carriers are exercising strict allocation controls, placing additional strain on shippers relying on long-term contracts.
  • Equipment pools at major Far East load ports are generally balanced, though occasional chassis and container shortages have emerged.
  • Congestion across Northern European gateways (Rotterdam, Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Antwerp, Le Havre) remains acute—berthing delays, barge bottlenecks and terminal turn-time slowdowns persist.
  • In the UK, London Gateway continues to feel the knock-on of diverted alliance volumes, while services into Felixstowe have seen modest relief.
Air

The air freight update is in progress and will be live very soon. Stay tuned!

Ocean
  • Demand is easing into July after the May-June peak, prompting carriers to trim rate levels across both U.S. West and East Coast headhauls.
  • Several blank sailings have been reinstated to rebalance capacity, though overall lift availability remains sufficient for well-planned volumes.
  • Carriers are adjusting their networks for July:
    • Gemini is introducing two additional West-Coast loops (including a new Tianjin call).
    • Maersk’s TP8 service will begin calling Tianjin and Qingdao on its eight-week rotation.
    • A second Maersk service will add a Yantian call on the return leg from Vietnam via South China.
  • Schedule reliability has improved by roughly 4.5% month-on-month (April–May), with average late-arrival delays down by around 0.6 days year-on-year.
Air

The air freight update is in progress and will be live very soon. Stay tuned!

Ocean
  • Rates out of India and Bangladesh have climbed sharply in early July amid tight capacity and rolling surcharges.
  • Space remains scarce – shippers should secure bookings at least two weeks in advance to avoid offloads.
  • Mother-vessel fill levels are high, leading to rollovers at feeder hubs (e.g. Port Klang, Singapore, Colombo) and minimal buffer for further delays.
  • Congestion at Nhava Sheva and Mundra persists, exacerbated by recent blank sailings and stack shortages.
  • Inland container availability is constrained in key hinterland markets, particularly for certain carriers.
  • Schedule reliability on the Indian Subcontinent–Europe corridor has improved month-on-month by nearly eight percentage points, reaching the low-60s.
  • Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd lead the trade lane in on-time arrivals (mid-90s), followed by Evergreen in the low-70s.
  • The joint CMA–MSC loop remains the predominant service option, with alternatives limited under current market conditions.
Ocean
  • Demand has softened since the early-June peak, easing some booking pressure.
  • Yard utilisation in Antwerp remains high, compounded by a national strike on 25 June and rail closures in Hamburg—both weighing on inland operations.
  • Port call delays continue across key gateways (Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Bremerhaven) and Southern hubs (Piraeus, Valencia, Genoa).
  • Chassis and container shortages are affecting Central European origins (Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Eastern Germany); carrier haulage is advised.
  • Equipment availability is also tight at Lisbon, Leixões and Mersin, limiting options for backhaul bookings.
  • Most carriers have deferred their Peak Season Surcharges until July (North Europe, West and East Mediterranean).
USA
  • Los Angeles / Long Beach: 0 vessels waiting to berth; 5-day rail dwell
  • Oakland: 1 vessel waiting; 5-day rail dwell
  • Seattle / Tacoma: 1 vessel waiting; 5-day rail dwell
  • New York / New Jersey: 1 vessel waiting; 5-day rail dwell
  • Norfolk: 5 vessels waiting; 3-day rail dwell
  • Savannah: 1 vessel waiting; 2-day rail dwell

 

Germany

Port of Hamburg, Germany

  • Rail access to western terminals (CTA, CTB, CTH) will be suspended 4–8 July for A26 West works, affecting all inbound/outbound rail movements
  • Disruptions may begin a day early and extend beyond reopening as backlogs clear
  • Shippers should divert rail via Wilhelmshaven (services AL1, AL4, NE1) or Bremerhaven (services ECX, NE4) where possible

Europe Public Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

  • 3 Jul (Thu): Belarus
  • 4 Jul (Fri): Belarus
  • 5 Jul (Sat): Czech Republic, Slovakia
  • 6 Jul (Sun): Czech Republic, Lithuania
  • 7 Jul (Mon): Isle of Man
  • 11 Jul (Fri): Belgium
  • 12 Jul (Sat): UK (United Kingdom)
  • 13 Jul (Sun): Montenegro
  • 14 Jul (Mon): France, Montenegro, UK (United Kingdom)
  • 15 Jul (Tue): Montenegro, Türkiye
  • 20 Jul (Sun): North Cyprus
  • 21 Jul (Mon): Belgium
  • 25 Jul (Fri): Spain, Spain
  • 28 Jul (Mon): Faroe Islands, San Marino, Spain
  • 4 Aug (Mon): Ireland (Eire)
  • 5 Aug (Tues): Croatia, Spain*
  • 15 Aug (Friday): Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, France, Germany*, Greece, Italy, Lithuanita, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain
  • 20 Aug (Weds): Estonia, Hungary
  • 29 Aug (Fri): Slovakia

The route ahead

The information that is available in the Zencargo Market Update comes from a variety of online sources, partners and our own teams. Click below to learn more about how Zencargo can help make your supply chain your competitive advantage.

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