Red Sea Shipping 2026: How will the Suez Canal reopening affect your supply chain

For over two years, challenges in Red Sea shipping have twisted global trade lanes into new shapes, forcing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and changing expectations for transit times and capacity management. With reopening on the horizon, it’s clear that any return to normal will come with significant short-term pains. In our recent webinar, Red Sea Reopening: Understanding the Impact on Your Supply Chain, Zencargo VP of Ocean Freight Procurement, Anne-Sophie Fribourg, sat down with Niels Madsen, VP of Product and Operations at logistics data-experts Sea-Intelligence, to unpack exactly what this transition may look like, the advantages and disadvantages it may bring shippers and how you can plan for potential disruption.

The Red Sea reopening at a glance

• The situation: After two years of diverting around Africa, carriers are under pressure to return to the Suez Canal in 2026 to save costs and reduce emissions.
• The timeline: A full immediate return is unlikely. Expect a phased approach, potentially starting after Chinese New Year or during Golden Week (October) to minimise network disruption.
• The immediate risk: Vessels taking the faster Suez route will arrive in Europe at the same time as vessels that took the longer Cape route, causing massive port congestion for 2-3 weeks.
• The market impact: The return effectively releases roughly 6% of global fleet capacity back into the market. Combined with new vessel deliveries, this oversupply is expected to drive freight rates down significantly.

What is the current state of shipping through the Red Sea?

Since the Houthi attacks began in late 2023, the vast majority of container vessels have diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. This avoidance lasted far longer than most analysts initially predicted, effectively absorbing excess capacity in the market by adding roughly 10 to 15 days to voyages between Asia and Europe.

This detour became the new normal, tightening the market and inflating spot rates due to the sheer distance required to move goods and the effective capacity reduction involved. While this might have seemed like a positive for carriers,  Niels Madsen noted during the webinar that carriers are under pressure to return: “The obvious pro is of course the saving of vessels, the saving of deployment cost, the saving of fuel. You will have a much lower unit cost going through the Suez Canal.” Niels explained. “And for customers you will cut between two and three weeks, between 14 and 21 days off your transit time for your Asia cargo into Europe.”

The Suez route saves over 3,000 nautical miles and significantly reduces fuel consumption and carbon emissions, which spiked by approximately 46% for container ships in 2024 due to the longer routes.

What will be the impact of carriers returning to the Suez Canal?

While there is no confirmed timeline, the operational incentives for carriers (lower unit costs and better equipment turnaround in particular) make returning the Suez an imperative. But that doesn’t mean it will be quick.

The mostly likely scenario is a phased approach. Carriers are likely to test the waters with eastbound sailings first, as we have already seen with tentative moves by CMA CGM.

There are two primary windows for a broader reintroduction of Suez services:

1. Post-Chinese New Year: A logical break in volumes that allows carriers to reset networks.
2. Golden Week (October): Another period of reduced volume that would minimise immediate disruption to shippers.

However, shippers should be wary of false starts. As noted by Xeneta, a full-scale return requires sustained stability and confident insurance markets. Until then, we may see a fragmented market where some alliances return while others, like the Gemini group (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd), remain cautious to protect schedule reliability.

European port disruption

If carriers redirect vessels through the Suez Canal, those ships will arrive in European ports at the exact same time as the vessels that departed earlier but took the longer route around Africa, with arrivals in Europe predicted to grow 10%-39%.

This could result in two to three weeks of massive volume spikes with severe consequences, including:

• Port congestion: European terminals could be overwhelmed, leading to berthing delays and slower container releases.
• Inland bottlenecks: The sudden influx of cargo will place extreme pressure on trucks, trains, and barges, potentially clogging inland distribution networks for months.
• Equipment imbalances: Following the congestion in Europe, the industry would face a secondary shockwave in Asia. As containers get stuck in European ports, Asian ports could face equipment shortages approximately eight to nine weeks after the first Suez transit.

 Even if the return to Suez reduces transit times on paper, the reality on the docks could be quite different in the short term.

A global capacity boom

For the past two years, the longer Cape of Good Hope route has absorbed a huge portion of global fleet capacity.

As Niels Madsen explained, the industry is currently witnessing a massive influx of new vessel capacity: roughly 8-9% of the global fleet is being delivered annually between 2024 and 2028. Currently, the long diversions are hiding this overcapacity. However, a return to the Suez Canal would effectively release 6% of global fleet capacity back into the market almost overnight.

If this release of capacity coincides with the delivery of new megaships, the market could swing violently from tightness to massive oversupply.

• Rate volatility: Initially, the operational disruption and congestion described above could trigger a short-term spike in spot rates.
• The buyer’s market: Once sailing schedules stabilise, the combination of shorter routes and new vessels will likely drive freight rates down significantly.

What does the Suez Canal reopening mean for shippers?

While a full return will take some time, shippers should start planning now to navigate the changes to come and avoid getting caught out.

1. Segment cargo strategically  

With the risk of congestion and delays during the transition period, this will be the time to prioritise inventory carefully. Identify which SKUs are revenue-critical and ensure they are routed via the most reliable services, even if that means paying a premium or sticking to the Cape route during the initial chaotic weeks of reopening.

2. Stay cautious on lead times 

Do not immediately adjust your lead times to match the theoretical Suez transit times. Network reconfigurations and alliance adjustments will disrupt reliability in the early stages. Build buffers into your planning to account for the anticipated port congestion in Europe and potential equipment shortages in Asia.

3. Look for contract flexibility 

With the market likely heading toward overcapacity and lower rates, locking into long-term fixed rates at current levels could be risky. Look for a provider, like Zencargo, who can offer index-linked pricing across a range of carriers to ensure you’re matching your costs to the market.  

4. Prioritise inventory data 

The longer transit times around Africa effectively acted as floating storage for many businesses. A return to faster transit times will remove this buffer. Shippers will need to re-evaluate their stock levels to ensure they don’t end up overstocked or, conversely, caught short if congestion delays arrivals. That includes building visibility over goods in transit and at origin, from PO to delivery – all available within Zencargo’s platform. 

Finding the right freight partner for 2026

With conditions liable to change fast, make sure your logistics partner can help you chart a clear route forward. 

• Planning and strategy: Our teams are already working with shippers to model transit times under different scenarios. By providing visibility into which vessels are routing via Suez versus the Cape, we can help you make informed decisions about booking allocations before your cargo even leaves the factory.
• Costs management: Congestion in European ports brings a high risk of demurrage and detention charges. Zencargo’s platform provides the granular tracking data you need to clear cargo efficiently and manage terminal appointments, ensuring your goods don’t get stuck in the bottleneck.
• Operational support:. We act as an extension of your team, constantly monitoring the geopolitical and operational landscape, from Houthi activity to US tariff announcements, to provide you with proactive alerts and alternative solutions.

To find out how Zencargo can support your supply chain in 2026, get in touch with one of our experts. 

Suez Reopening FAQs

When will Red Sea shipping routes reopen? 

While there is no confirmed date, most analysts expect a phased return, potentially following Chinese New Year (Q1) or during Golden Week (October) to minimise disruption from new arrival times. 

How will Suez reopening affect rates? 

Experts expect freight rates to drop significantly in the medium term. A return to the Red Sea shortens voyages, releasing roughly 6% of global vessel capacity back into an already oversupplied market, meaning lower rates for shippers.

How will the Suez Canal reopening affect lead times? 

The reopening is expected to reduce transit times by approximately 10 to 15 days on Asia-Europe routes compared to the Cape of Good Hope detour. 

Which carriers have returned to the Suez Canal? 

Most capacity remains routed via the Cape of Good Hope but CMA CGM has announced a full turn to come and Maersk has tested some passages. Other carriers are yet to commit.