In Focus: Capacity in flux as Suez recovers and Panama tightens

The Suez Canal is reopening, though the ship count doesn’t tell the whole story. MDS Transmodal data shows 196 transits in August, up 36% year on year, but capacity of 1.68m TEU, up 184%. Average vessel size on the route has gone from 3,800 to 6,000 TEU, and nine ships above 20,000 TEU transited in August alone.

Panama Canal transits are moving in the opposite direction, as this year’s severe drought reduces capacity. Daily transits dropped from 36 in August to 34 now and 32 from 15 September. The incoming administrator has not ruled out cutting to 29 in February or March if the drought holds. The challenge is that Hormuz disruption adds further pressure on the canal as an alternative route, just as it loses capacity.

For shippers, Asia–Europe is gaining capacity just as the slack season sets in, with rates cooling under the combined weight of both. Asia–US East Coast and US Gulf–Asia face the opposite. The Panama Canal situation has the potential to be a slow-burning problem running well into 2027, and the Suez Canal recovery remains reversible.

Ocean
  • Spot rates continue to fall as the slack season begins, dropping since early September. With no volume surge expected, rates will likely continue their downward trajectory through the second half of the month.
  • Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) remain active but have been revised downward on specific contracts. Cargo mix is strictly managed, with carriers expecting support on FAK vs allocation release on Long Term deals.
  • Allocations on Named Accounts (NAC) and long-term agreements remains tightly controlled. Full allocations are still being restricted though overall availability is improving.
  • General FAK space remains accessible with a 7-to-10-day booking lead time.
  • Severe typhoons in Asia have disrupted empty container repositioning, causing notable equipment shortages at origin ports.
  • Destination operations are facing disruption. Ongoing strike action across key German and Dutch ports is causing vessel delays and cargo backlogs.
Air

Central China

  • SHA: Outbound rates to the UK remain dynamic. Bookings require direct case-by-case verification.
  • NGB: Inbound air freight rates continue to climb this week, with all bookings and rate confirmations requiring case-by-case checks.

North China

  • TSN: Market capacity remains tight with rates holding steady. Select carriers provide lower rate levels into London Heathrow (LHR) in exchange for longer transit times. Alternative carriers offer earlier departure dates at higher rate levels. Space requires a 4-to-5-day advance booking lead time, with all bookings quoted case by case.
  • DLC / PEK: Rates across major airlines remain stable for now, though pricing is expected to hold at higher levels moving forward. High-density cargo can access spot pricing, whilst large-volume shipments require a 6-to-7-day booking lead time and acceptance of split flights.
  • TAO: Demand to Europe has picked up this week, leading to slightly tighter space across most European airport hubs for departures tracking around 10 September. Directional freight rates have ticked upward slightly, though airlines continue to offer spot rates for dense and high-volume consignments.

South China

  • CAN: With the onset of September, the market is shifting into peak season conditions, putting upward pressure on freight rates. All spot pricing must be confirmed case by case according to scheduled flight dates.
  • SZX: Market demand is climbing, driving general rate increases across European routes. Cost-effective options remain available for deferred services to major European gateways, with all shipments subject to case-by-case quoting.
  • XMN: Outbound rate levels remain stable and are expected to hold flat this week. Shipments require case-by-case validation to secure optimised spot rates depending on cargo specifications.
Rail
  • Market demand has decreased slightly in September. Overall transit times from main China hubs to Duisburg remain stable at 21 to 23 days, with no significant delays.
  • Overall capacity remains unchanged for the month. Express services are highly sought after, with all space fully booked for the first half of September. Shippers are required to book space at least 2 to 3 weeks in advance.
  • Most rail hubs have reduced their rates for September, although Jinhua and Hefei have extended their August pricing. Even as container rental costs continue to rise, overall total costs have decreased.
  • Because space remains tight across the network, customers are strongly advised to secure capacity at least 2 weeks prior to their Cargo Ready Date.
Ocean
  • FAK rates continue to push higher across the trade for the first half of September, driven by stable demand, fully utilised vessels, and compounding operational disruptions in China and Panama. US East Coast lanes are bearing the steepest rate increases on average.
  • While premium-tier services remain accessible, space on these services will apply large cancellation fees and in some cases non-guarantee of space for nominated vessel. PSS for NACs will hold throughout September. Additionally, Panama Canal Surcharges (PCS) are being applied to NAC rates as an independent fee.
  • Operational space remains critically limited. Front-loading of cargo ahead of October’s Golden Week, combined with previous tariff exemptions, has severely drained available capacity to the US. Carriers are deploying their fleets at maximum capacity throughout September, prompting strong recommendations for shippers to place bookings 3 to 4 weeks in advance.
  • A surge in blank sailings is anticipated leading into and immediately following Golden Week. Heavy port congestion persists in China, particularly around Shanghai and Ningbo, as terminals struggle to recover from recent severe typhoons.
  • Panama Canal operations continue to tighten under daily transit slot restrictions, with further reductions planned from 15 September. 
  • An increased PCS will also take effect in the second half of the month. To navigate these canal constraints, volumes are being shifted away from all-water East Coast routings in favour of West Coast discharges and inland rail connections. 
  • This diversion is sharply increasing expected dwell times across all main rail ramps, with heavy pressure already building at Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals.
Air

Central China

  • SHA: Export rates to the US West Coast have seen a significant increase as transportation capacity drops. This constraint is being driven by major technology firms securing charter aircraft, compounded by rising e-commerce volumes and the approach of the traditional peak season. US East Coast and Central markets are experiencing similar upward rate pressure. 

North China

  • TSN: Market conditions and rate levels remain stable this week, though pricing is expected to hold at higher levels moving forward. Dedicated freighter flights are providing earlier departure options, with select carriers offering competitive pricing into US West Coast hubs. Space requires a 6-to-7-day booking lead time, with all bookings checked case by case.
  • DLC / PEK: Carrier rate levels are holding steady for now, with expectations of remaining elevated across all airlines. High-density shipments can access spot pricing, whilst large volume cargo requires a 6-to-7-day booking lead time and acceptance of flight splitting. Space and rates must be verified case by case against cargo details.
  • TAO: The market is becoming busy, resulting in tightening space to both US West Coast and East Coast destinations. Directional freight rates have trended upward, though airlines continue to release spot pricing for dense and high-volume cargo. All space and rates require case-by-case validation.

South China

  • CAN: Moving into September, the market is transitioning into peak season conditions. Spot rates remain variable and must be confirmed case by case according to actual scheduled flight dates.
  • SZX: Market demand is heating up across the board. Deferred service options are available into both US West Coast and East Coast hubs, with all shipments requiring case-by-case quoting from carriers.
  • XMN: Air freight rates have ticked upward slightly this week. Bookings and rates to be confirmed directly on a case-by-case basis.
Ocean
  • India rates peaked in late August and have softened across major carriers heading into early September. In contrast, Bangladesh (Chittagong) FAK levels remain largely stable without the downward movement seen in India, while peak period surcharges have mostly trended upward.
  • FAK space availability is improving, though long term space remains strictly controlled. Shippers are advised to escalate urgent shipments early and be proactive in handing over cargo for loading.
  • Equipment deficits persist at select Inland Container Depots (ICDs) across India. Empty container releases and gate-in operations at Mundra are also facing disruption due to strikes across empty container yards.

Port Operations:

  • Nhava Sheva: Yard density remains critical at over 90%. Severe monsoon weather and regional service delays continue to cause vessel waiting times and equipment imbalances.
  • Mundra: Terminal gate-ins and empty container supplies are constrained by local yard strikes.
  • Colombo: Transhipment delays have worsened to 48–72 hours, with berthing delays for scheduled window vessels expected to persist over the coming weeks due to yard congestion and heavy weather.
  • Trade lane reliability improved by 5.9 percentage points month-on-month to 65.3%. Hapag-Lloyd led carrier performance at 90.8%, followed by Maersk (89.6%), MSC (80.9%), and CMA CGM (61.1%). By service loop, NWC to IPAK achieved 89.7%, Australia Express reached 73.9%, and EPIC tracked lower at 58.5%.
Ocean
  • The market has firmed through September, which is traditionally a slack period for this trade. Carriers are cutting capacity to prevent rates from sliding, keeping pricing stable at highly elevated levels on the North Europe to US East Coast route. 
  • Substantial PSS implemented in mid-August by major carriers continue to hold firm.
  • Vessel utilisation remains exceptionally high, driven strictly by carrier capacity management rather than organic demand. Shippers must book 3 to 4 weeks in advance to secure space. Looking ahead to October, carriers are ramping up Suez transits, which is expected to inject additional capacity into US routes and put downward pressure on rates.
  • Westbound schedule reliability fell by 2.4 percentage points month-on-month to 75.0% for the June/July tracking period, with average delays for late vessels widening slightly to 4.17 days. ICL and Maersk ranked as the most reliable carriers on this corridor.

Port & Inland Operations:

  • Europe: German port strikes have been resolved, and disruptions at Antwerp and London Gateway have eased, though minor delays persist due to holiday crewing levels. Mediterranean port operations are stabilising.
  • Canada: Severe inland bottlenecks continue, with rail dwell times at Montreal, Prince Rupert, and Saint John persistently exceeding 7 days. Shippers routing cargo to Chicago are advised to bypass Canadian gateways and use New York or Norfolk via CSX/NS intermodal rail instead.
  • USA: General port congestion remains stable. Chassis shortages in New York are still an issue but are showing signs of improvement.
Benelux

Belgium

Antwerp

  • PSA 913: Yard utilisation is at 75–80%, with reefer utilisation at 75–80%.
  • PSA 869: Yard utilisation stands at a level of 65–70%, with reefer utilisation at 50–55%.
  • AGW: Yard utilisation normalised to 70–75%, with reefer utilisation at 70–75%.
  • Strike Impact: All terminals were impacted by strike actions on 4 September from 11:00 to 19:00.

Netherlands

Rotterdam

  • ECT: Yard utilisation is at an elevated level of 80–85%.
  • RWG: Yard utilisation remains at a critical level of 80–85%.
  • Delta II: Yard utilisation is at a low level of 35–40%, with reefer utilisation at 30–35%.
  • APMT Maasvlakte II: Yard utilisation is at a higher level of 85–90%.

All terminals were impacted by strike actions on 4 September from 11:00 to 19:00.

USA

Ocean

  • LA/LB: 1 vessel waiting (up by 1), with an 8-day dwell on the rail terminals.
  • Oakland: 3 vessels waiting (up by 2), with a 6-day rail dwell.
  • Seattle and Tacoma: 0 vessels waiting (no change), with a 5-day dwell on rail.
  • Vancouver (Canada): 2 vessels waiting (down by 3), with a 7-day dwell on rail.
  • NY/NJ: 0 vessels waiting (down by 1), with a 4-day dwell on rail.
  • Savannah: 6 vessels waiting (up by 3), with a 3-day dwell on rail

Europe Public Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

September 2026

  • 8 September (Tue): Andorra, Liechtenstein, Macedonia, Malta, Spain
  • 10 September (Thu): Gibraltar, Switzerland
  • 11 September (Fri): Spain
  • 15 September (Tue): Slovakia, Spain
  • 17 September (Thu): Holy See (Vatican City), Spain
  • 20 September (Sun): Germany
  • 21 September (Mon): Malta, Switzerland
  • 22 September (Tue): Bulgaria
  • 24 September (Thu): Austria
  • 25 September (Fri): Switzerland
  • 27 September (Sun): Belgium
  • 28 September (Mon): Czech Republic

October 2026

  • 1 October (Thu): Cyprus, San Marino
  • 3 October (Sat): Germany
  • 4 October (Sun): Italy
  • 5 October (Mon): Portugal
  • 9 October (Fri): Spain*
  • 10 October (Sat): Austria*
  • 11 October (Sun): Macedonia
  • 12 October (Mon): Macedonia, Spain
  • 14 October (Wed): Moldova*
  • 23 October (Fri): Hungary, Macedonia
  • 26 October (Mon): Austria, Ireland (Eire)
  • 28 October (Wed): Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Türkiye*
  • 29 October (Thu): North Cyprus, Türkiye
  • 31 October (Sat): Finland, Germany*, Slovenia, Sweden, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)

November 2026

  • 1 November (Sun): Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Croatia, France, Germany, Holy See (Vatican City), Hungary, Italy, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland*
  • 2 November (Mon): Belgium*, Lithuania, Monaco, San Marino, Spain*
  • 4 November (Wed): Russia
  • 7 November (Sat): Belarus
  • 9 November (Mon): Spain*
  • 11 November (Wed): Austria*, Belgium, France, Poland, Serbia
  • 13 November (Fri): Montenegro, Saint Helena
  • 14 November (Sat): Montenegro
  • 15 November (Sun): Austria*, Belgium*, North Cyprus
  • 17 November (Tue): Czech Republic
  • 18 November (Wed): Croatia, Germany*, Latvia
  • 19 November (Thu): Monaco
  • 21 November (Sat): Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*
  • 22 November (Sun): Albania
  • 23 November (Mon): Albania
  • 25 November (Wed): Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*
  • 28 November (Sat): Albania
  • 29 November (Sun): Albania
  • 30 November (Mon): Albania, Romania
Traffic bans

08.09.26

  • AT | Austria: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein: 00:00 – 24:00

09.09.26

  • AT | Austria: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

10.09.26

  • AT | Austria: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

11.09.26

  • AT | Austria: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

12.09.26

  • AT | Austria: 15:00 – 24:00
  • AT | Austria: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • AT | Austria: 07:00 – 15:00
  • HR | Croatia: 04:00 – 14:00
  • FR | France: 22:00 – 24:00
  • LU | Luxembourg: 21:30 – 24:00
  • LU | Luxembourg: 23:30 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • HU | Hungary: 22:00 – 24:00
  • IT | Italy: 07:00 – 15:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein: 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

The route ahead

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