Zencargo Market Update: 11th March 2026

Ocean

• March rates have remained unstable due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Iran war. While the expected post-holiday demand surge did not fully materialise to justify early March rate hikes, FAK rates for the second half of the month are indicating an upward trend. 
• Some carriers have already moved away from their initial target increases. Due to market volatility, some carriers are only releasing rates with one-week validities. Emergency Fuel Surcharges have been introduced across all trades, including the Asia-Europe lane.
• Overall space performance is adequate, with capacity being released under long-term and NAC deals for March. However, advance booking remains necessary for certain carriers, and late bookings will likely struggle to secure same-week departures.
• Blank sailing programmes are reducing in the second half of March as carriers re-establish their standard services following the Chinese New Year. Gemini and MSC are currently operating at full capacity, while the Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance have announced very few blank sailings.
• Weather conditions in Europe have improved, but terminals are still battling congestion and high yard density stemming from earlier schedule disruptions. It will take some time for the network to fully stabilise. In Asia, ports are experiencing minor congestion as factories simultaneously resume production post-holiday.
• Volumes continue to increase, driven by a shift in demand as cargo originally bound for the US is diverted to alternative markets like Europe. 
• Gemini is offering a backup routing solution from Asia to the Middle East via Europe; while it is uncertain how much cargo will utilise this option, it may slightly increase demand on the Asia-Europe lane, though it is not expected to cause a massive impact.

Air

Central China (SHA/NGB)

• SHA: The Middle East conflict is causing significant disruption, with capacity loss on the core Asia-Middle East-Europe route reaching 26%-40%. 
• Rates are trending upward, driven by rising fuel costs and capacity constraints as resources concentrate on direct flights. Shippers are strongly advised to reserve buffer time and anticipate delays.
• NGB: Demand into Germany is increasing, leading to a hot market with tightening space and climbing rates. Similar to SHA, shippers must anticipate delays and build in buffer time to mitigate the risks associated with the Middle East conflict.

North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/PEK)

• TSN: The market is tightening, with space requiring a 4-5 day booking lead time. Lower rates are available for longer transit times, but overall rates are holding at a higher level.
• DLC/PEK: Rates are beginning to increase due to the Middle East disruption. Spot options are available for dense cargo, but volume cargo requires 6-7 days of advance notice and acceptance of flight splits.
• TAO: The market is hot with tight space to most EU hubs, driving rates slightly upward compared to last week. Spot rates remain available for dense and volume cargo.

South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)

• CAN: The market is recovering, but the Middle East conflict is causing space volatility. Shipments must be checked case by case depending on actual flight dates.
• SZX: Market demand is trending upward this week; all shipments should be quoted with carriers case by case.
• XMN: Airfreight rates continue to increase due to the Middle East conflict, though overall transport and handling operations remain normal.

Ocean

• The first half of March saw slight upward adjustments in FAK rates across the market. Looking ahead, carriers have confirmed a GRI for the second half of March, signalling further anticipated rate hikes. Additionally, Peak Season Surcharges have been officially confirmed to take effect from 1 April.
• Overall market demand currently remains flat. Conversely, capacity is increasing as predicted; it has recovered to roughly 80% and is expected to continue climbing throughout March. The majority of this returning capacity is being allocated to US West Coast services. 
• Despite growing pressure on carriers to pull vessels operating in or near the Middle East, this is not currently affecting the transpacific trade directly, though secondary impacts on vessel, equipment, and crew rotations remain a risk.
• Overall schedule reliability has shown minor improvements. West Coast reliability increased by 1.2 percentage points to 68.2%, bolstered by performance improvements from the Ocean Alliance and MSC, despite a slight drop from the Premier Alliance. East Coast reliability similarly edged up by 0.9 percentage points to 60.3%, largely driven by strong gains from the Ocean Alliance, which helped offset notable decreases in reliability from Gemini and MSC.

Air

Central China (SHA/NGB)

• SHA: Rates to both the US West Coast and East Coast are gradually rising as the market transitions from the post-holiday stagnation into the spring production recovery.
• However, capacity is seriously constrained by the slow resumption of work in East China and insufficient belly capacity on China-Japan routes. Furthermore, the end of the US duty-free policy (which concluded on 28 February), winter storms, and the slow recovery of the MD-11 fleet are presenting comprehensive market challenges. Some shippers are mitigating these factors by shifting urgent goods to sea freight.
• NGB: Market conditions broadly mirror the wider regional challenges and should be checked case by case.

North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/PEK)

• TSN: Operating in a normal market with stable, albeit higher-level, rates. Freighter options are providing earlier departures, but space still requires 6-7 days of advance booking.
• DLC/PEK: Rates are fluctuating but generally remaining at a higher level. Dense cargo can access spot rates, while volume cargo needs 6-7 days advance notice and acceptance of flight splits.
• TAO: The US lane is a little hot this week. Space is currently not very tight, but rates are trending upwards to both the West and East coasts. Spot rates are still being released for dense and volume cargo.

South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)

• CAN: Market recovery is underway, but Middle East tensions are creating space volatility. All shipments must be checked case by case according to actual flight dates.
• SZX: The market is operating normally, with rates needing to be checked with carriers case by case.
• XMN: The Middle East conflict is having a knock-on effect here, driving airfreight rates upward. Final pricing remains dependent on actual flight checks.

Ocean

• March rates are highly volatile, with new General Rate Increases (GRIs) announced for second-half March FAKs. 
• Rates from India to North Europe are trending upward, driven by a combination of increased demand from the Indian fruit and grape season and the ongoing Middle East conflict. Similarly, rates out of Bangladesh are increasing, though the extent of the upward adjustments varies significantly depending on the carrier. In response to the broader market volatility, carriers are widely announcing new emergency surcharges and GRIs.
• Overall capacity is being constrained in March as multiple carriers implement blank sailings. Furthermore, shippers are facing equipment shortages, specifically a lack of 20-foot containers across most Delhi Inland Container Depots (ICDs).
• Numerous vessels are currently stuck in the Persian Gulf, with MSC and CMA CGM reported as the most severely affected carriers. As a direct consequence, congestion is expected to increase significantly at transhipment hubs as Middle East-bound cargo is actively diverted and rerouted.
• Operational issues and disruptions are mounting at key regional ports. Colombo is experiencing congestion resulting in roughly 1-2 vessel rolls, disruptions at Chittagong are increasing, and both Mundra and Chennai are reporting slight congestion.
• Based on December/January 2026 data, overall schedule reliability on the Indian Subcontinent-Europe trade lane decreased by 5.4 percentage points month-on-month to 63.8%. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd stood out as the most reliable carriers during this period (both at 87.5%), while other major carriers and specific alliance services lagged significantly behind.

Ocean

• While overall demand remains soft, available capacity continues to decline. Carriers are anticipating noticeable space issues in the coming weeks, largely driven by ongoing schedule changes.
• Schedule reliability remains weak, having decreased by 6.0 percentage points to 55.4%. ICL and ACL are currently performing as the most reliable carriers, followed by MSC. To adjust to current market conditions, both the Ocean Alliance and MSC are actively realigning routes and reducing the number of vessels on transatlantic services.
• Severe bottlenecks and congestion persist across key Northern European ports, heavily impacting Rotterdam, Hamburg, Antwerp, and the UK. This disruption is being driven by a combination of ongoing bad weather and severe vessel bunching as ships continue to reroute to avoid the Red Sea.
• Broader tariff uncertainty continues to hang over the trade lane. Furthermore, President Trump has recently threatened to halt trade with Spain over the US-Iran conflict, following the NATO ally’s refusal to allow the US military to use its bases for missions linked to strikes on Iran.

USA

Ocean

• US West Coast (LA/LB): 0 vessels waiting (no change), with a 7-day dwell on rail terminals due to a backlog of pre-CNY cargo.
• Oakland: 1 vessel waiting (down by 1), with a 6-day rail dwell.
• Seattle/Tacoma: 3 vessels waiting (down by 1), with a 5-day rail dwell.
• US East Coast (NY/NJ): 1 vessel waiting (no change), with a 5-day rail dwell.

Europe Public Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

• 11 March (Wed): Lithuania.
• 14 March (Sat): Albania, Andorra.
• 15 March (Sun): Hungary.
• 16 March (Mon): Albania.
• 17 March (Tue): Ireland (Eire), UK (United Kingdom).
• 19 March (Thu): Austria, Holy See (Vatican City), Liechtenstein, Malta, Spain, Switzerland, Türkiye.
• 20 March (Fri): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Kosovo, Macedonia, North Cyprus, Spain, Türkiye.
• 21 March (Sat): North Cyprus, Türkiye.
• 22 March (Sun): Albania, North Cyprus, Türkiye.
• 23 March (Mon): Albania.
• 25 March (Wed): Cyprus, Greece, San Marino.
• 31 March (Tue): Malta.
• 1 April (Wed): Cyprus, San Marino.
• 2 April (Thu): Andorra*, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Iceland, Norway, Portugal*, Spain, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Switzerland*.
• 3 April (Fri): Andorra, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, France*, Germany, Gibraltar, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Guernsey and Alderney, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Eire), Isle of Man, Jersey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg*, Malta, Netherlands*, Norway, Portugal, Saint Helena, Slovakia, Spain, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Switzerland*, UK (United Kingdom), Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
• 4 April (Sat): Andorra*, Sweden*.
• 5 April (Sun): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Germany, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Holy See (Vatican City), Iceland, Italy, Kosovo, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
• 6 April (Mon): Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Guernsey and Alderney, Holy See (Vatican City), Hungary, Iceland, Ireland (Eire), Isle of Man, Italy, Jersey, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Saint Helena, San Marino, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain*, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Switzerland*, UK (United Kingdom)*, Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
• 9 April (Thu): Kosovo.
• 10 April (Fri): Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia.
• 11 April (Sat): Bulgaria, Serbia.
• 12 April (Sun): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*, Bulgaria, Greece, Kosovo, Moldova, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine.
• 13 April (Mon): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Transdniestria (PMR).
• 14 April (Tue): Cyprus*.
• 20 April (Mon): Belarus, Moldova, Transdniestria (PMR).
• 21 April (Tue): Belarus.
• 23 April (Thu): Iceland, North Cyprus, Spain*, Spain*, Türkiye.
• 25 April (Sat): Faroe Islands*, Italy, Portugal.
• 27 April (Mon): Netherlands, Slovenia.
• 28 April (Tue): Gibraltar.

Traffic bans

10.03.2026

• AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

11.03.2026

• AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

12.03.2026

• AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

13.03.2026

• AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

14.03.2026

• AT | Austria 15:00 – 24:00
• AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• AT | Austria 07:00 – 15:00
• FR | France 07:00 – 18:00
• FR | France 22:00 – 24:00
• LU | Luxembourg 21:30 – 24:00
• LU | Luxembourg 23:30 – 24:00
• CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
• HU | Hungary 22:00 – 24:00
• IT | Italy 07:00 – 15:00
• LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00