In Focus: India-Pakistan Ceasefire and European Congestion

Last weekend’s ceasefire between India and Pakistan brought relief to both citizens and supply chains. But while military hostilities have ceased, the aftershocks remain. 

Port operations on both sides were disrupted, with Indian western terminals experiencing blackouts and key Pakistani hubs facing suspended carrier calls. Air cargo suffered even more pronounced setbacks—more than 30 Indian airports saw closures, while reciprocal airspace bans forced reroutes, slashing capacity and inflating costs for temperature-sensitive goods like pharmaceuticals. Despite the resumption of operations, the situation remains fragile.

European Congestion: Warning Signs for Summer

Congestion at key Northern European ports—Rotterdam, Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Antwerp, and Le Havre—remains severe, impacting vessel berthing, barge connections, and overall container movement within the terminals.

In the UK, London Gateway is currently the most affected port due to a surge in volume from Gemini. This has prompted both Pacific Atlantic (PA) and MSC to shift their services to Felixstowe.

Ocean
  • The market remains oversupplied despite some blank sailings, with excess capacity driven by Transpacific vessel redeployments. This is expected to persist until at least late June.
  • May rate levels are softening further, with aggressive rate competition between carriers.
  • Schedule reliability has improved, with Gemini services exceeding 80% on-time performance and MSC averaging in the mid-70s. Overall trade reliability remains below 50%.
  • Equipment availability is stable, but congestion continues across North European ports, notably Rotterdam, Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Antwerp, and Le Havre.
  • In the UK, London Gateway is the most affected by Gemini volume surges. Services have been diverted to Felixstowe by Premier Alliance and MSC.
  • The U.S. has reportedly negotiated a ceasefire with the Houthis to enable the resumption of safe transits through the Suez Canal, although further confirmation is pending.

 

Air

Central China to Europe:

  • Shanghai (SHA): Space remains tight but stable, especially around the Labour Day period. E-commerce volumes are strong, and airlines are applying spot rates where required.
  • Ningbo (NGB): Market is stable. Availability is consistent but may tighten depending on FBA cargo flows. Spot pricing available.
  • Germany (DE): Space is hot but stable during the holiday week. Booking volume is high, particularly for e-commerce shipments.

North China to Europe:

  • Tianjin (TSN): The market remains steady, with longer transit times on some routes. SQ offers preferred rates to LHR. Booking 4–5 days in advance is advised.
  • Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates remain high. Spot pricing is available for dense cargo. Volume cargo may require advance planning and acceptance of flight splits.
  • Qingdao (TAO): Space is stable, with slightly tighter capacity to LHR. Spot rates available, particularly for denser shipments.

South China to Europe:

  • Guangzhou (CAN): Market conditions are normal. Spot rates and availability should be confirmed based on actual flight schedules.
  • Shenzhen (SZX): Market is active, especially for deferred services. All shipments require case-by-case booking and rate confirmation.
  • Xiamen (XMN): Market remains stable. Rates and space availability must be confirmed on a case-by-case basis.
Ocean
  • Early May saw increases on both FAK and PP rates. Indications suggest that some 2H rate levels may be adjusted downward, although this is yet to be confirmed.
  • Demand continues to recover after steep declines in April. Trade from China to the U.S. fell by 60% last month, prompting widespread blank sailings.
  • Forward bookings from mid-May are increasing, particularly from China-based shippers resuming volumes in response to tariff adjustments and temporary trade reprieve.
  • Approximately 23% of weekly sailings have been cancelled this week, with carriers aggressively managing capacity to match recovering demand.

 

Air

Central China to USA:

  • Shanghai (SHA): Space is more available post-holiday, though flight cancellations continue. Spot pricing is applied based on shipment type. General cargo volumes have declined due to tariff impact.

North China to USA:

  • Tianjin (TSN): Space remains tight with higher freighter utilisation. Booking 4–5 days ahead is advised. JL offers better rates to key West Coast hubs.
  • Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates are stable. Volume cargo may require flight splits and early booking to secure capacity.
  • Qingdao (TAO): Capacity remains constrained due to freighter cancellations. Spot rates are active, especially for denser loads.

South China to USA:

  • Guangzhou (CAN): Several flights remain cancelled due to tariff pressure. Spot rates must be confirmed based on actual flight options.
  • Shenzhen (SZX): Market is normal but pricing has edged up slightly. Rates are case-by-case depending on destination and density.
  • Xiamen (XMN): Stable conditions post-holiday. Spot pricing available; space must be confirmed on booking.
Ocean
  • Rates from India and Bangladesh are stable in early May, with minor adjustments noted. Some extensions confirmed into late May.
  • Schedule reliability has improved on the ISC–EU route, rising from 38.1% to 47.4% in recent months.
  • MSC has suspended its Rotterdam call from Chittagong due to ongoing congestion. A direct call is expected to resume on the Australia Express service later in May.
  • Political tensions between Pakistan and India continue to affect routing, with cargo transshipped via Colombo, the Middle East, and Singapore. Some carriers have introduced additional surcharges. A ceasefire is in place, but service risks remain due to the unresolved nature of the dispute.

 

Ocean
  • Rates remain more stable than on other east–west lanes, with moderate downward movement reported.
  • Congestion at major European ports has led to service reshuffling. OOCL has rerouted Rotterdam calls via Antwerp. Gemini Alliance has redirected calls from London Gateway to Felixstowe.
  • Blank sailings are ongoing, with  11 departures cancelled between Weeks 19–23, accounting for 16% of global blank sailings in that period.

 

USA

Over the weekend, China and the U.S. agreed to a 90-day pause on escalating tariffs, marking a temporary de-escalation in the ongoing trade war that has disrupted supply chains worldwide. 

Both countries will reduce the reciprocal tariffs imposed earlier this year.

  • U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods: Now reduced to 10%, down from a peak of 125%. Please note: all other tariffs, including the 20% tariff linked to the IEEPA Fentanyl remains in effect. 
  • Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods: Now lowered to 10%, significantly easing pressure on US exporters.

The 90-day pause begins by May 14 and offers temporary relief for businesses sourcing from China. However, it’s important to note that this is a pause—not a resolution—so further negotiations and potential disruptions may still lie ahead. 

  • Here is the latest update on U.S. ports:
    • LA/Long Beach: 6 vessels waiting, 7-day rail dwell
    • Oakland: 5 vessels waiting, 5-day rail dwell
    • Seattle/Tacoma: 0 vessels, 5-day rail dwell
    • NY/NJ: 3 vessels, 6-day rail dwell
    • Norfolk: 3 vessels, 3-day rail dwell
    • Savannah: 4 vessels, 2-day rail dwell
Benelux

Antwerp:

  • PSA 913: Yard utilisation remains at a very high level (90–95%), with reefer utilisation at 70–75%.
  • PSA 869: Yard utilisation stable at 90–95%, with reefer utilisation rising again to 90–95%.
  • AGW: Yard utilisation stable at 65–70%, with reefer utilisation also steady at 60–65%. Cargo opening times remain 5 days prior to vessel ETA.

Rotterdam:

  • ECT: Yard operations stabilised with in/out phase completion expected next week. Yard at 70–75%; second modalities remain under pressure.
  • RWG: Yard utilisation high at 85–90%, with yard protection measures in place.
  • DELTA II: Yard operating at normal levels of 65–70%.
  • APMT MVII: Yard stable at 70–75%.

 

United Kingdom
  • April saw the TEG Road Transport Price Index – a key indicator of haulage costs – rise by 3.9 points to reach 123.8, putting transport prices year-on-year 4.21% above April 2024 index figures. The rise was driven by a combination of seasonal demand over Easter, unseasonably warm weather, and a drop in available capacity, particularly for 13.6m artics

 

Europe Public Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

  • 15 May (Thu): Spain
  • 17 May (Sat): Spain
  • 24 May (Sat): Bulgaria
  • 26 May (Mon): Bulgaria
  • 29 May (Thu): Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sweden
  • 30 May (Fri): Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, Spain
  • 31 May (Sat): Spain
  • June 1, Sunday: Lithuania, Moldova, Romania
  • June 2, Monday: Ireland (Eire), Italy
  • June 5, Thursday: Denmark*, Faroe Islands*, Türkiye*
  • June 6, Friday: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Isle of Man, Kosovo, North Cyprus, Spain, Spain*, Sweden, Türkiye
  • June 7, Saturday: Malta, North Cyprus, Sweden*, Türkiye
  • June 8, Sunday: Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Germany*, Greece, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Iceland, Netherlands, North Cyprus, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Türkiye, Ukraine, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)
  • June 9, Monday: Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Faroe Islands, France, Germany, Greece, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Hungary, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, North Cyprus, Norway, Romania, Saint Helena, Spain*, Spain*, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Switzerland*, Türkiye, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)
  • June 10, Tuesday: Portugal
  • June 12, Thursday: Russia
  • June 13, Friday: Portugal*, Russia, Spain*
  • June 14, Saturday: Russia
  • June 15, Sunday: Russia
  • June 16, Monday: Gibraltar
  • June 17, Tuesday: Iceland
  • June 19, Thursday: Austria, Croatia, Germany*, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Spain*, Switzerland*
  • June 20, Friday: Finland*, Sweden*, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)*
  • June 21, Saturday: Finland, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Sweden, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)
  • June 22, Sunday: Croatia
  • June 23, Monday: Estonia, Latvia, Luxembourg, Switzerland*
  • June 24, Tuesday: Andorra*, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Spain*
  • June 25, Wednesday: Slovenia
  • June 28, Saturday: Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Ukraine
  • June 29, Sunday: Holy See (Vatican City), Italy, Malta, Switzerland*

The route ahead

The information that is available in the Zencargo Market Update comes from a variety of online sources, partners and our own teams. Click below to learn more about how Zencargo can help make your supply chain your competitive advantage.

Get In Touch

Event