In Focus: Supply chain shocks and tariff transitions

President Trump has announced that he will extend the ceasefire with Iran at Pakistan’s request. The U.S President says the blockade of Iranian ports will continue until Tehran presents a “unified proposal”.

The announcement follows several days of uncertainty around the status of peace talks, with Iran vowing retaliation and refusing to attend. As a result, crossing volumes in the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted, with tracking data showing just three vessels transiting the strait in a 12-hour period, compared to a normal daily average of about 130 ships.

Oil prices surged approximately 5% on Monday amid fears of the collapsing ceasefire, while war risk insurance rates have climbed from 2% to roughly 3% of a vessel’s value. In an attempt to cool soaring energy costs, the U.S administration has renewed a one-month waiver on Russian oil sanctions, though a similar waiver for Iranian crude exports was allowed to lapse. 

In U.S tariffs news, this month saw the launch of the CAPE portal designed to process reimbursements for businesses who paid the now-ruled unconstitutional IEEPA tariffs, along with new “full value” assessments for emerging Section 232 tariffs and proposed valuation which change how import duties are calculated. 

Ocean
  • Demand has been flat and is not expected to increase, heavily impacted by rising fuel costs linked to the Iran war and lower European GDP forecasts.
  • Space remains tight if not booked ahead, though market capacity is being released under NAC and long-term deals if booked 3-4 weeks in advance.
  • April blank sailing programmes are limited and mostly centralised within the PA/OA alliance, and no major reports of worsening congestion have been issued.
  • Rate levels have decreased for the second half of April as an influx of new capacity puts pressure on supply and demand, pushing carriers to reduce overall rates to fill space despite rising bunker costs.
  • Emergency Bunker surcharges remain in place, however many carriers have included these surcharges directly into their FAK rates, making the assessment of true market rate increases challenging.
Air

Central China (SHA/NGB)

  • SHA: With the Middle East conflict and the re-closure of UAE airspace, fuel costs have increased, and capacity is concentrated on direct flights. Prices are expected to continue rising. LH has planned numerous flight cancellations this week, making capacity to Germany critically tight. Shippers are strongly advised to reserve buffer time and anticipate the risk of delays, with all rates needing to be checked case by case.
  • NGB: Demand into Germany is increasing, leading to a hot market with tightening space. Shippers must check rates on a case-by-case basis.

North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/PEK)

  • TSN: The market is tight as airlines adjust fuel surcharges this week. Lower rates are available for shipments accepting longer transit times, while options for earlier departures are holding at a higher level. Space requires 4-5 days of advance booking, and rates must be checked case by case with cargo details.
  • DLC/PEK: Rates with most airlines have decreased slightly this week but are expected to remain at a higher level overall. Dense cargo can secure spot rates, but volume cargo requires 6-7 days of advance notice and the acceptance of flight splits.
  • TAO: The market to the EU is slightly busy with tight space to most hubs, and rates are trending upward. Spot rates remain available for dense and volume cargo, but all shipments must be checked case by case.

South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)

  • CAN: Rates continue to rise this week as we approach the pre-Labor Day shipping peak. Pricing must be checked case by case according to actual flight dates.
  • SZX: Market demand is trending upward this week; all shipments and deferred services to main EU airports should be checked with carriers case by case.
  • XMN: Due to the Middle East conflict and capacity cuts, space is hot and newly published cost increases are driving freight rates upward. Transport and handling operations remain normal, but final pricing is dependent on actual flight checks and will be quoted case by case.
Ocean
  • Demand has seen an increase recently as consumers take advantage of the end of current long-term contracts.
  • Capacity will be pulled for the US East Coast, with a corresponding focus on increasing capacity for the US West Coast as we approach the end of the 2025-2026 long-term contract cycle.
  • Blank sailings are increasing as the market enters May.
  • The FAK market has been volatile in recent weeks amid trade uncertainty, though rates for the second half of April are showing slight increases.
  • Emergency Fuel Surcharges will be extended for the second half of the month.
  • Congestion across US ports currently remains steady.
Air

Central China (SHA/NGB)

  • SHA: Due to ongoing instability in the Middle East and high oil prices, freight rates to both the US West Coast and East Coast remain at a very high level. Airlines have implemented rate increases, with East Coast rates trending higher. Space for lower-priced options is extremely limited, though availability improves at higher price tiers. Rate levels in the coming weeks will depend entirely on the resolution of the Middle East conflict and its impact on the oil market.

North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/PEK)

  • TSN: The market is tight with rates holding stable this week, though they remain at a higher level overall. Freighter options provide the earliest departure space, with some carriers offering comparatively better rates to US West Coast destinations (LAX/SFO/SEA). Overall space requires 6-7 days of advance booking and case-by-case rate checks.
  • DLC/PEK: Rates with most airlines are holding stable this week but are anticipated to stay at an elevated level. Dense cargo can still apply for spot rates, but volume cargo requires 6-7 days of advance booking and the acceptance of flight splits. Space and rates must always be checked case by case.
  • TAO: The market to the US remains busy with tight space to both the West and East coasts. Rates are trending upward slightly this week. Airlines are still releasing spot rates for dense and volume cargo, but all shipments must be checked case by case.

South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)

  • CAN: Rates continue to rise this week as the market approaches the pre-Labor Day shipping peak. Spot rates must be checked case by case according to actual flight dates.
  • SZX: Market demand is trending upward this week, with all carriers increasing rates to both the US West and East coasts. Pricing must be checked with carriers case by case.
  • XMN: Due to the Middle East conflict and subsequent capacity cuts, space is hot. Airlines have confirmed cost increases effective from 21 April for both US West Coast and East Coast base ports. Conditions are expected to remain similar moving into this week, and final pricing is entirely dependent on actual flight checks case by case.
Ocean
  • Spot rates for the second half of April are starting to soften after previous increases, with FAK rates from North West India showing a slight decrease.
  • Rates for other Indian and Pakistani Ports of Loading have mainly been extended.
  • Capacity and equipment levels remain mostly stable for the second half of April, particularly for Chittagong routing.
  • Initial cargo backlogs stemming from the Middle East crisis have mostly cleared, contributing to improving overall capacity.
  • There is continued uncertainty over the Middle East, as regional conflicts cause volatility in energy and shipping costs, directly affecting export margins through fluctuating oil, gas, and freight prices.
  • Port congestion of varying degrees is still being reported across Chennai, Nhava Sheva, Karachi, and Colombo.
  • There are currently no reported equipment issues in the region.
  • Shippers are advised to book early and hand over cargo in a timely fashion to minimize potential delays.
Ocean
  • Demand remains soft, with European exports declining 3.4% year-on-year, making it the only region showing negative export demand growth.
  • Schedule changes are currently impacting available space, and capacity on this trade lane has fallen by around 13% month-on-month, which is tightening supply and accelerating rate increases.
  • It is understood that around 3.2 million TEU going to North America has been lost globally.
  • Rates on the trade lane have increased significantly in recent weeks, with rates rising further going into late April and May.
  • Driven by a combination of reduced capacity and carrier pricing discipline, the World Container Index (WCI) for the Rotterdam-New York leg saw a 25% week-on-week increase.
  • Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) for North Europe have been announced for Hapag-Lloyd and CMA, effective 20 April, Mediterranean PSS announcements for both Hapag-Lloyd and CMA, effective 1 May.
  • Schedule reliability continues to be weak, having decreased more than 11% in January and February 2026 down to 44.2%.
  • ACL performed as the most reliable carrier on the trade lane during January/February 2026 with a perfect schedule reliability of 100.0%, followed by ICL at 75.0%.
  • Operational issues continue to affect some ports in Europe; notably, an oil spill in Antwerp impacted operations, and minor issues such as vessel bunching in Le Havre and crane/berthing issues in Hamburg have been reported.
  • North American ports are currently remaining operationally good.
  • New services connecting North Europe and North America include a CMA rotation between Montoir, Baltimore, and Halifax (Neoline), starting at the end of April.
  • ONE has deployed a new vessel, the ONE Satisfaction, on the AT1 service, which boasts a 13,900 TEU capacity and superior environmental performance.
Benelux

Antwerp

  • PSA 913: Yard utilisation is elevated at 80% to 85%, with reefer utilisation at 60% to 65%.
  • PSA 869: Yard utilisation stands at a level of 85% to 90%, with reefer on normal utilisation of 60% to 65%.
  • AGW: Yard utilisation has remained increased at 70% to 75%, with reefer utilisation reducing to 60% to 65%.
  • AGW (Empties & Cargo): Empties are fluctuating between 55% and 80%, and cargo opening times are now set to 6 days prior to vessel ETA.

Rotterdam

  • ECT: The yard is on an elevated level of 85% to 90% utilisation.
  • RWG: Yard utilisation has remained on a critical level of 80% to 85% utilisation.
  • DELTA II: Yard is on a low level of 45% to 50% utilisation, with reefers at a level of 35% to 40%.
  • APMT MVII: The yard is currently at a higher level of 85% to 90% utilisation.
USA

Ocean

  • LA/LB: 3 vessels waiting (increase of 3), with a 5-day dwell on the rail terminals.
  • Oakland: 3 vessels waiting (up by 2), with a 6-day rail dwell.
  • Seattle and Tacoma: 0 vessels waiting (down by 3), with a 4-day dwell on rail.
  • Vancouver (Canada): 1 vessel waiting (up by 1), with a 7-day dwell on rail.
  • NY/NJ: 4 vessels waiting (up by 3), with a 5-day dwell on the rail.
  • Savannah: 3 vessels waiting (down by 4), with a 2-day dwell on the rail.

 

Europe Public Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

  • 21 April (Tue): Belarus.
  • 23 April (Thu): Iceland, North Cyprus, Spain*, Spain*, Türkiye.
  • 25 April (Sat): Faroe Islands*, Italy, Portugal.
  • 27 April (Mon): Netherlands, Slovenia.
  • 28 April (Tue): Gibraltar.
  • 1 May (Fri): Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Holy See (Vatican City), Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, North Cyprus, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Switzerland, Transdniestria (PMR), Türkiye, Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
  • 2 May (Sat): Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain*.
  • 3 May (Sun): Lithuania, Poland, Russia.
  • 4 May (Mon): Austria*, Guernsey and Alderney, Ireland (Eire), Isle of Man, Jersey, Latvia, Transdniestria (PMR), UK (United Kingdom).
  • 5 May (Tue): Netherlands*.
  • 6 May (Wed): Bulgaria.
  • 8 May (Fri): Belgium*, Czech Republic, France, Holy See (Vatican City), Slovakia*, Ukraine.
  • 9 May (Sat): Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*, Guernsey and Alderney, Jersey, Kosovo, Luxembourg, Moldova, Russia, Transdniestria (PMR).
  • 10 May (Sun): Russia.
  • 11 May (Mon): Kosovo, Russia, Transdniestria (PMR).
  • 14 May (Thu): Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Saint Helena*, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Switzerland, Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
  • 15 May (Fri): Belgium*, Denmark*, Monaco*, Spain*.
  • 17 May (Sun): Norway, Svalbard and Jan Mayen.
  • 19 May (Tue): North Cyprus, Türkiye.
  • 21 May (Thu): Montenegro, Saint Helena.
  • 22 May (Fri): Montenegro.
  • 23 May (Sat): Sweden*.
  • 24 May (Sun): Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Germany*, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Iceland, Liechtenstein, Macedonia, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Slovenia, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Sweden, Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
  • 25 May (Mon): Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Faroe Islands, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Guernsey and Alderney, Hungary, Iceland, Isle of Man, Jersey, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Saint Helena, Svalbard and Jan Mayen, Switzerland*, UK (United Kingdom).
  • 26 May (Tue): Türkiye*.
  • 27 May (Wed): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Kosovo, North Cyprus, Spain, Spain*, Türkiye.
  • 28 May (Thu): North Cyprus, Türkiye.
  • 29 May (Fri): North Cyprus, Türkiye.
  • 30 May (Sat): Croatia, North Cyprus, Spain*, Türkiye.
  • 31 May (Sun): Greece, Romania, Ukraine.
  • 1 June (Mon): Cyprus, Greece, Ireland (Eire), Moldova, Romania, Romania, Ukraine.
  • 2 June (Tue): Italy.
  • 4 June (Thu): Austria, Croatia, Germany*, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Spain*, Switzerland*.
  • 5 June (Fri): Denmark*, Faroe Islands*, Isle of Man.
  • 6 June (Sat): Sweden.
  • 7 June (Sun): Lithuania, Malta.
  • 9 June (Tue): Spain*, Spain*, Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
  • 10 June (Wed): Portugal.
  • 12 June (Fri): Russia.
  • 13 June (Sat): Portugal*, Russia, Spain*.
  • 14 June (Sun): Russia.
  • 15 June (Mon): Gibraltar, UK (United Kingdom)*.
  • 17 June (Wed): Iceland.
  • 19 June (Fri): Finland*, Sweden*, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)*.
  • 20 June (Sat): Finland, Sweden, Åland (Ahvenanmaa).
  • 21 June (Sun): Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat)*.
  • 22 June (Mon): Croatia, Estonia*, Latvia.
  • 23 June (Tue): Estonia, Latvia, Luxembourg, Switzerland*.
  • 24 June (Wed): Andorra*, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Spain*.
  • 25 June (Thu): Slovenia.
  • 28 June (Sun): Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH)*, Ukraine.
  • 29 June (Mon): Holy See (Vatican City), Italy*, Malta, Switzerland*, Ukraine.
Traffic bans

21.04.2026

  • AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

22.04.2026

  • AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

23.04.2026

  • AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

24.04.2026

  • AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00

25.04.2026

  • AT | Austria 11:00 – 15:00
  • AT | Austria 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • AT | Austria 15:00 – 24:00
  • FR | France 22:00 – 24:00
  • LU | Luxembourg 21:30 – 24:00
  • LU | Luxembourg 23:30 – 24:00
  • CH | Switzerland 00:00 – 05:00; 22:00 – 24:00
  • HU | Hungary 22:00 – 24:00
  • IT | Italy 09:00 – 22:00

The route ahead

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