In Focus: The July reciprocal tariff deadline approaches

On July 9th, exemptions and pauses for a range of U.S tariffs will expire, and many deals remain unconfirmed, including for the EU, China and India.

Join our webinar tomorrow,  on Tuesday June 17th to find out how you can prepare → Sign up now.

In early June, the Trump administration doubled Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50%, while narrowing exemptions that previously applied to derivative products. Notably, the United Kingdom has been granted a temporary reprieve, subject to future negotiations tied to a prospective U.S.-UK Economic Prosperity Deal.

Meanwhile, trade talks with the European Union have reached a delicate phase. EU officials are considering a proposal to accept a flat 10% U.S. tariff on all European exports, aiming to stave off even higher duties targeting cars, pharmaceuticals and electronics. However, such an agreement would come with conditions and remains far from final. Simultaneously, the wider U.S.-EU dialogue is facing complex sticking points in agriculture, digital services and pharmaceuticals, with both sides seeking politically palatable compromises.

Talks with China have progressed more cautiously. While both sides claim to have reached a tentative “framework” agreement covering rare earths and semiconductors, officials acknowledge that many critical details remain unresolved, and any deal is still pending final sign-off by both Presidents Trump and Xi.

Get the full picture on what to expect in the coming weeks – and find out how to plan to keep your goods moving. Sign up for our webinar on Tuesday June 17th: Tariff Talk: July 9 reciprocal tariffs — What’s changing and how to prepare.

Ocean
  • Rates continue to rise into 2H June, with carriers implementing additional surcharges.
  • Space remains fully booked approximately three weeks ahead; dwell times increasing for late bookings.
  • Capacity is being shifted to the Transpacific trade, contributing to tight space conditions.
  • Carriers are tightly managing allocations, placing pressure on long-term contract shippers.
  • Equipment availability stable at origin; delays of over three days reported at Shanghai and Singapore.
  • European port congestion remains severe across Rotterdam, Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Antwerp, and Le Havre, impacting vessel berthing, barge flows and terminal operations.
  • London Gateway most affected in the UK due to diverted Gemini alliance volumes; Maersk redirecting services to Felixstowe.
Air

Central China to Europe (SHA/NGB):

  • Shanghai (SHA): The market is stable and space remains available though allotments are slightly reduced due to some carrier cancellations. Spot pricing continues for dense and urgent shipments.
  • Ningbo (NGB): This is a stable market with rates quoted case-by-case depending on cargo details.

North China to Europe (TSN/DLC/PEK/TAO):

  • Tianjin (TSN): The market is stable and booking 4–5 days in advance is advised.
  • Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): There has been a slight downward adjustment in rates. Spot pricing remains available for dense cargo; volume cargo may require flight splits.
  • Qingdao (TAO): The market is stable, space open, with rates quoted on a case-by-case basis.

South China to Europe (CAN/SZX/XMN):

  • Guangzhou (CAN): The market remains normal and space is stable but bookings should be confirmed individually.
  • Shenzhen (SZX): The market has stabilised. Deferred services available and rates are quoted on a case-by-case basis.
  • Xiamen (XMN): Space and rates remain stable. Bookings require case-by-case confirmation.
Ocean
  • Demand remains strong due to the  traditional summer peak season and the impact of the 90-day reciprocal tariff. However, new bookings have started to slow down. 
  • Capacity is recovering on the West Coast, with several carriers restoring services and fewer blank sailings scheduled. Overall capacity levels for 2H June are forecast to exceed standard averages.
  • Rates have softened on the West Coast, reflecting multiple reductions over recent weeks. East Coast levels have remained steady for now.
  • Blank sailings continue to decline: week 24 blanked capacity fell to 9%, down significantly from May’s 34%.
  • Tariff developments remain in focus. The 90-day reciprocal tariff pause for key U.S. trading partners is now expected to be extended beyond the initial July 9th expiry date. Chinese-origin cargo loaded after May 14th remains subject to a 10% reciprocal tariff until at least August 11th, though longer-term tariff levels beyond that remain uncertain.
Air

Central China to USA (SHA/NGB):

  • Shanghai (SHA): The market is stable but space remains tighter at weekends. Rates quoted per flight date; space bookings recommended in advance.
  • Ningbo (NGB): Space is stable and rates are quoted on a case-by-case basis.

North China to USA (TSN/DLC/PEK/TAO):

  • Tianjin (TSN The market remains hot and rates have increased slightly. A 4–5 day lead time advised.
  • Dalian/Beijing (DLC/PEK): Rates are stable overall. Dense cargo is eligible for spot pricing; volume cargo requires 6–7 day advance booking with flexibility for flight splits.
  • Qingdao (TAO): Space to the USA remains tight and rates still elevated. Bookings should be handled case-by-case.

South China to USA (CAN/SZX/XMN):

  • Guangzhou (CAN): The market is heating up ahead of peak season. Spot rates available; bookings must be confirmed based on actual flight availability.
  • Shenzhen (SZX): Market is hot. FBA volumes are driving bookings; case-by-case space and pricing.
  • Xiamen (XMN): Market active with strong volumes. Rates quoted based on shipment details and departure dates.
Ocean
  • Demand from India continues to soften into late June, while Pakistan has seen some uplift. Bangladesh trends remain mixed, varying by carrier as Far East conditions influence the market.
  • FAK/NAC rates out of India are holding stable, with space remaining widely accessible across most carriers.
  • Container availability is sufficient across India, though some shortages are starting to emerge in Pakistan.
  • Bangladesh space is mostly open, though certain carriers loading via Asia are experiencing tighter capacity.
  • Colombo congestion remains a limiting factor, disrupting feeder flows into Southern India hubs such as Chennai and Tuticorin.
Ocean
  • Strong demand continues as we enter the traditional peak season.
  • Congestion remains at several North European ports, including Rotterdam, Antwerp, Bremerhaven, Le Havre, and Hamburg.
  • Some easing of backlog seen in June as long-stay containers are cleared and terminal throughput improves.
  • UK ports, particularly Southampton, are temporarily taking additional U.S.-bound volumes originally scheduled for congested mainland hubs.
  • The Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance have temporarily suspended Rotterdam calls on some services (AL5, AT2), diverting vessels to Southampton to maintain schedules.
  • SeaLead Shipping has entered the Transatlantic market with new services connecting Turkey and Morocco to New York and Norfolk, adding further capacity diversification.
USA
  • Los Angeles/Long Beach: 1 vessel waiting to berth, with a 6-day rail dwell.
  • Oakland: 1 vessel waiting, 6-day rail dwell.
  • Seattle and Tacoma: No vessels waiting, 5-day rail dwell.
  • New York/New Jersey: 2 vessels waiting, 9-day rail dwell. Rail congestion remains high with 64% yard capacity.
  • Norfolk: 5 vessels waiting, 3-day rail dwell.
  • Savannah: 2 vessels waiting, 2-day rail dwell.
Benelux

Antwerp, Belgium

  • PSA 913: Yard utilisation remains very high at 90–95%, with reefer utilisation at 70–75%.
  • PSA 869: Yard utilisation increased to a critical level of 90–95%, with reefer utilisation also high at 90–95%.
  • AGW: Yard utilisation stable at 65–70%, reefer utilisation at 60–65%. Cargo opening times remain 5 days prior to vessel ETA.

Rotterdam, Netherlands

  • ECT: Yard utilisation increased this week to 80–85%, but expected to drop next week to 70–75%.
  • RWG: Yard utilisation remains high at 80–85%.
  • DELTA II: Yard operating at normal levels of 65–70%.
  • APMT MVII: Yard utilisation stable at 70–75%.
United Kingdom
  • Peel Ports has announced a £30 million investment to develop a new RoRo berth at the Port of Sheerness, targeting growing demand across automotive, construction, paper and bulk sectors. The new in-river berth and floating pontoon will support larger vessels over 230m LOA, with construction starting in March 2025 and operations expected by summer. This expansion is set to increase capacity for key customers like Volkswagen and CEVA, while relieving pressure on adjacent berths.
  • The Road Haulage Association has warned that the UK government’s latest spending review risks underfunding major road investment, calling it a “missed economic opportunity” for transport. The £24 billion allocated for both the strategic and local road networks represents a real-terms cut compared to previous periods. Industry leaders continue to call for accelerated investment in road infrastructure projects to cut congestion, support business growth and maintain competitiveness.

Europe Public Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

  • June 17, Tuesday: Iceland
  • June 19, Thursday: Austria, Croatia, Germany*, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Spain*, Switzerland*
  • June 20, Friday: Finland*, Sweden*, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)*
  • June 21, Saturday: Finland, Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat), Sweden, Åland (Ahvenanmaa)
  • June 22, Sunday: Croatia
  • June 23, Monday: Estonia, Latvia, Luxembourg, Switzerland*
  • June 24, Tuesday: Andorra*, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Spain*
  • June 25, Wednesday: Slovenia
  • June 28, Saturday: Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), Ukraine
  • June 29, Sunday: Holy See (Vatican City), Italy, Malta, Switzerland*
  • 3 Jul (Thu): Belarus
  • 4 Jul (Fri): Belarus
  • 5 Jul (Sat): Czech Republic, Slovakia
  • 6 Jul (Sun): Czech Republic, Lithuania
  • 7 Jul (Mon): Isle of Man
  • 11 Jul (Fri): Belgium
  • 12 Jul (Sat): UK (United Kingdom)
  • 13 Jul (Sun): Montenegro
  • 14 Jul (Mon): France, Montenegro, UK (United Kingdom)
  • 15 Jul (Tue): Montenegro, Türkiye
  • 20 Jul (Sun): North Cyprus
  • 21 Jul (Mon): Belgium
  • 25 Jul (Fri): Spain, Spain
  • 28 Jul (Mon): Faroe Islands, San Marino, Spain
  • 29 Jul (Tue): Faroe Islands

The route ahead

The information that is available in the Zencargo Market Update comes from a variety of online sources, partners and our own teams. Click below to learn more about how Zencargo can help make your supply chain your competitive advantage.

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