Zencargo Market Update: 22nd September 2025

Ocean

• Ocean freight rates have continued their downward trend into October, with no seasonal rush from Golden Week to provide support. Spot rates on Asia–North Europe have fallen sharply (down c.45% in the past 10 weeks), signalling a rate war even with tonnage shortages. 
• Vessel schedules remain unstable, with ongoing port omissions and blank sailings disrupting cargo flows and leading to rollings on certain full vessels.
• Demand is subdued, with space being released roughly a week in advance, including on long-term deals. Allocations are being managed flexibly by carriers.
• Blank sailings are set to remove around 17% of capacity between weeks 40–43, with peaks of up to 30% on some alliances. This reduction will add pressure on dwell times and increase the risk of rolled cargo.
• Equipment availability is largely stable, though overall service reliability continues to be impacted by schedule adjustments.

Air

Central China

• • SHA: Space remains hot despite overall softer demand, driven mainly by auto parts. IT cargo demand is weak. Carriers are steadily pushing up rates, with further increases expected into the weekend. Direct flights to the UK are operating with short transits, though payloads remain light. France remains particularly tight, with limited space at CDG. Dense cargo should be booked early.
  • NGB: Space is very tight, and airlines continue to push rates up. Imports are being quoted on a case-by-case basis.

North China

• TSN: Market is warm, with SQ/JL offering lower-cost options to LHR with longer transits. Freighter operators (KE/OZ) provide earlier ETDs, but space requires 4–5 days’ lead time, rising to 6–7 days for other carriers.
• DLC/PEK: Rates are holding stable for most carriers. Dense cargo can still secure spot space, but larger shipments may require flight splits with 6–7 days’ advance booking.
• TAO: Space remains open to EU hubs, though the market is busy. Spot options are still being released for both dense and volume cargo.

South China

• CAN: Market is tightening into peak season. Carriers are expected to increase rates from the weekend, with bookings handled case by case.
• SZX: Market is stable, though carriers are nudging up rates. All bookings require carrier confirmation.
• XMN: Market strengthened ahead of the holiday. Space is very tight, and further increases are anticipated.

Ocean

• Demand remains flat for this time of year, with no significant pre–Golden Week surge; oversupply of goods on the market is keeping volumes subdued.
• September’s second GRI attempt did not materialise, with pricing slipping back towards pre–1H September levels as capacity continues to outweigh demand.
• Port congestion is minimal on the West Coast and improving on the East Coast, with reduced delays compared to earlier in the year.
• Capacity is expected to peak in week 39, followed by sharp reductions during Golden Week (EC down ~37%, WC down ~18%).
• USTR fees on Chinese-built and operated vessels calling at U.S. ports are set to begin on 14th October, introducing new cost considerations for carriers and potentially shifting vessel deployment patterns. CMA CGM confirmed it will not add surcharges in response to USTR port fees, while COSCO could face costs of up to $2.1bn annually.
• Carriers are planning to restore capacity quickly post–Golden Week to meet anticipated demand recovery, keeping overall space availability stable.

Air

Central China

• SHA:
  • USWC: The dense cargo strategy has resumed at LAX, limiting options for heavier freight. SFO is stable. Rates are climbing steadily into the holiday, with early booking essential.
  • USEC: Conditions are tighter due to recent flight cancellations, meaning space is highly sought-after  While ecommerce demand is lighter pre-holiday, general cargo bookings are surging and harder to confirm.
• NGB: Market is steady but managed on a case-by-case basis, with space remaining tight.

North China

• TSN: Market is hot, with KE/OZ/JL freighters offering earlier ETDs. Space requires 4–5 days’ notice.
• DLC/PEK: Most carriers are stable, with UA flights now back to normal. Dense cargo can still get spot options, while large-volume shipments face higher rates and may need splitting.
• TAO: Market is hot, especially to the East Coast where space is very tight. Airlines are still releasing spot options, but bookings should be made early.

South China

• CAN: Peak season pressures are mounting, with further increases expected into the weekend. Spot rates depend on actual flight dates.
• SZX: Market is broadly stable, though rates remain high to both West and East Coast. All bookings require carrier confirmation.
• XMN: Space has tightened sharply before the holiday, with further increases expected. East Coast routes (JFK/ORD) are under particular strain.

Ocean

• Rates are softening after earlier increases in the summer, with some carriers showing additional decreases through September. Volumes from Bangladesh remain pressured, though congestion at key hubs is beginning to ease.
• Operational challenges continue: weather-related stoppages have disrupted flows from Mundra, Kandla and Nhava Sheva, while Colombo faces yard density issues, causing delays of up to two days.
• MSC has adjusted its Karachi service by adding a Malabar shuttle, shortening overall transit times to North Europe by around five days despite retaining transhipment.
• Shippers are advised to book two to three weeks in advance to secure space and align with target sailings.

Ocean

• Market remains relatively stable, though low rates are likely to see upward pressure as carriers adjust vessel deployments and introduce surcharges to manage exposure.
• Congestion continues at key Northern European ports, with yard utilisation high and periodic vessel delays.
• Capacity is being actively managed: sharp reductions in capacity noted in weeks 38, 39, and 45, followed by significant increases in weeks 43 and 47.
• MSC continues to hold the largest share of weekly capacity on the Europe–US East Coast trade, averaging around 30% of market allocation.

USA

• Los Angeles/Long Beach: No vessels waiting; average 6-day rail dwell.
• Oakland: 2 vessels waiting; 7-day rail dwell.
• Seattle/Tacoma: No vessels waiting; 6-day rail dwell.
• New York/New Jersey: 4 vessels waiting; 3-day rail dwell.
• Norfolk: 5 vessels waiting; 3-day rail dwell.
• Savannah: 3 vessels waiting; 2-day rail dwell.
• Vancouver: 1 vessel waiting; 5-day rail dwell.

Benelux

• PSA 913: Yard utilisation increased to 80–85%, with reefer utilisation steady at 60–65%.
• PSA 869: Yard utilisation eased to 65–70%, with reefers stable at 45–50%.
• AGW: Yard utilisation stable at 55–60%, reefers slightly reduced to 50–65%, empties steady at 80–85%.
• From 15 September, yard opening times have been adjusted to 6 days prior to vessel ETA (previously 5 days).

Rotterdam

• ECT: Yard stable at 65–70% utilisation.
• RWG: Yard remains at a critical level of 80–85%.
• DELTA II: Yard at a low level of 25–30%, reefers stable at 30–35%.
• APMT MVII: Yard stable at 85–90%.

UK

• UK road freight prices rose in August as stronger seasonal demand, boosted by Bank Holiday spending and warm weather, lifted both haulage and courier markets. Despite additional capacity entering the system, haulage rates climbed more than courier rates, with articulated demand and persistent driver shortages maintaining upward pressure on costs.
• Industry groups have warned that with tighter EPC standards due by 2027 and 2030, up to 60% of UK warehouses risk being unlettable without upgrades. Given that most facilities were built before 2000, this could lead to a significant drop in warehousing capacity in an already-tight market.

Europe Public Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

• 24 Sep (Wed): Austria*
• 25 Sep (Thu): Switzerland*
• 27 Sep (Sat): Belgium*
• 28 Sep (Sun): Czech Republic
• October 1 (Wednesday): Cyprus, San Marino
• October 3 (Friday): Germany
• October 5 (Sunday): Portugal
• October 9 (Thursday): Spain*
• October 10 (Friday): Austria*
• October 11 (Saturday): Macedonia
• October 12 (Sunday): Spain
• October 13 (Monday): Spain*
• October 14 (Tuesday): Moldova*
• October 23 (Thursday): Hungary, Macedonia
• October 24 (Friday): Hungary
• October 26 (Sunday): Austria
• October 27 (Monday): Ireland (Eire)
• October 28 (Tuesday): Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Türkiye*
• October 29 (Wednesday): North Cyprus, Türkiye
• October 31 (Friday): Germany*, Slovenia