In Focus: Overland Rises as Hormuz Alternative

The IMO’s evacuation plan for the Strait of Hormuz achieved an initial breakthrough before a projectile attack prompted a temporary pause. While some vessels have successfully transited the Strait, ongoing uncertainty around vessel safety and potential mine risks means many are expected to continue relying on overland alternatives until confidence in regular transits improves.

Maersk has moved ahead with an attempt to reenter the Strait, repositioning its 4,200 teu Maersk Baltimore and a time-chartered vessel outbound, while retaining three additional vessels for intra-Gulf services. While Hapag-Lloyd and Yang Ming have executed individual transits, the broader industry view remains cautious. Mitsui OSK Lines has signalled that  the sector needs tangible proof the peace accord is “material” before committing to regular strait passages.

Alternative routes are emerging, with CMA CGM rerouting its eastbound leg via Suez, reducing round-trip transit by one week to 98 days. Maersk’s MECL1 North America-Middle East service is experimenting similarly. If uncertainty around Strait transits continues, these diversions could help support elevated freight rates and tighter capacity through the third quarter, with market conditions likely to depend on how the regional security situation evolves.

Ocean

Note: Extreme heat conditions in Europe are impacting port operations, which are slowing down due to overheat of equipment, IT related outages and need for extra breaks for dockworkers.

  • Demand is increasing week-on-week and currently exceeds available market capacity.
  • Short-term and long-term ocean freight rates are rising, with further increases announced for the first half of July.
  • Peak Season Surcharges have been announced for July, with further upward adjustments expected. A  new PSS has been announced by CMA CGM, Maersk, HMM and Yang Ming effective from 1 July 2026.
  • Bunker Adjustment Factor upward revisions are scheduled for July.
  • Vessel space is fully booked three weeks in advance, with FAK contracts fully committed two to three weeks ahead.
  • Space allocations under long-term agreements have been reduced as carriers focus on alternative cargo tiers, making extended pre-booking lead times necessary to secure space.
  • Equipment availability issues are rising, resulting in withheld equipment releases and late booking cancellations.
  • Major carriers including Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and Evergreen are operating at capacity across the trade lane.
Air

Central China (SHA/NGB)

  • SHA: Air export rates are being quoted on a case-by-case basis. 
  • NGB: Rates have eased marginally this week. All bookings and rates require case-by-case confirmation.

North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/PEK)

  • TSN: Market remains tight, though rate levels are holding steady week-on-week. SQ and JL offer lower rates to London Heathrow with longer transit times. Space requires four to five days’ advance booking.
  • DLC/PEK: Rates have increased across major carriers (SQ, CX, LH, CA, KL, NH, JL) this week. Dense cargo eligible for spot rates. Volume shipments require six to seven days’ advance notice and acceptance of flight splits.
  • TAO: Market has loosened this week. Space to European airports is open. Airfreight rates have fallen sharply, with estimated departure times around early July. Airlines continue releasing spot rates for dense and volume cargo.

South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)

  • CAN: Rates have eased as summer holidays approach. Pricing remains contingent on spot-rate confirmation based on actual flight dates.
  • SZX: Market operations running normally this week. Deferred services to main European airports expected to remain steady.
Ocean

 

  • Demand remains high
  • The Summer Peak Season is driving  capacity management, with carriers in week 26 cancelling approximately 7% of scheduled capacity.
  • Further increases are anticipated in the FAK market for the first half of July.
  • The Emergency Fuel Surcharge remains in effect
  • Peak Season Surcharges have been introduced, with NAC PSS implemented from the start of June and further increases proposed for July. 
  • Blank sailings are increasing week-on-week, further constraining available vessel capacity.
  • Space is very limited  heading into July
  • East Coast and Gulf services are more restricted than West Coast gateways.
  • Multiple cargo rollings are in operation
  • The Panama Canal is implementing tightened draught restrictions effective 3 July, which will further reduce capacity to East Coast and Gulf services. Weight restriction surcharges may be introduced by certain carriers as a result.
  • Shippers are strongly advised to book three to four weeks in advance.
Air

Central China (SHA/NGB)

  • SHA: E-commerce exports have remained muted due to heightened customs inspections and weekend holiday effects. Prices have declined from the previous week but remain elevated owing to high fuel costs and capacity constraints from flight cancellations. Rate direction depends on oil price movements.

North China (DLC/TSN/TAO/PEK)

  • TSN: Market is normal this week, with rate levels holding steady. Freighter options (KE, JL) provide earliest departure space. Japan Airlines offers better rates to LAX, SFO, and SEA. Space requires six to seven days’ advance booking.
  • DLC/PEK: Rates have remained stable across most carriers (CX, JL, NH, BR) this week. Dense cargo eligible for spot rates. Volume shipments require six to seven days’ advance notice and acceptance of flight splits.
  • TAO: Market has weakened considerably this week. Space is available to both US West and East Coast. Rates to West Coast have fallen; East Coast rates remain elevated. Airlines continue releasing spot rates for dense and volume cargo.

South China (CAN/SZX/XMN)

  • CAN: Rates have eased during summer holidays. Pricing contingent on spot-rate assessment based on actual flight dates.
  • SZX: Market conditions stable this week. Deferred services to US West and East Coast available. Rates require case-by-case carrier verification.
  • XMN: Capacity cuts linked to Middle East disruptions have kept space tight and rates elevated. Airlines have confirmed rate increases to both US West Coast and East Coast ports as of 24 April. Final pricing entirely subject to actual carrier flight checks.
Ocean
  • Rates are increasing in July across the trade lane.
  • ISC FAK rates from India continue to rise in July, with carriers including HMM, ONE, YML, and CMA implementing increases.
  • MSC has announced elevated FAK rates effective from 1 July 2026. CMA has introduced a new Peak Season Surcharge effective from 15 July 2026.
  • Chittagong FAK rates are experiencing similar upward adjustments, with YML, ONE, and HMM all raising rates.
  • Space from India is very tight in the first half of July, with limited allocation available.
  • MSC blank sailings and changes to vessel rotations on the IPAK service have reduced overall capacity on the trade lane.
  • Mundra and Nhava Sheva continue to face significant congestion, with elevated yard density and extended dwell times persisting.
  • Container shortages are being reported across North India Inland Container Depots, particularly at ICD Jodhpur.
  • CMA has added the Omani port of Duqm to its EPIC service connecting the Indian Subcontinent to Europe, expanding regional coverage.
  • CMA has introduced a new block train from North India to connect with the EPIC service, improving inland connectivity.
  • Schedule reliability on the Indian Subcontinent-Europe trade lane increased marginally month-on-month in April/May 2026, reaching 53.2%.
  • Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk demonstrated the highest schedule reliability on the trade lane in April/May 2026, followed by MSC. Key services including MSC NWC to IPAK, MSC/CMA Australian Express/NEMO, and MSC Britannia each maintained varying levels of schedule performance.
Ocean
  • Rates are climbing into peak season, with upward pressure expected to persist through early July.
  • Peak Season Surcharges have been announced by major carriers effective July, with HMM, Zim, Maersk, and CMA all implementing increases on key services including Europe-Los Angeles and East Mediterranean to US routes.
  • Bunker Adjustment Factor upward revisions are scheduled, driven by elevated fuel costs. Other surcharges are stacking cumulatively, with overall 40ft rates anticipated to reach elevated levels following PSS and BAF application.
  • According to the World Container Index, Europe-USA rates have increased in mid-June, with Rotterdam-New York routes showing upward movement. June base rates remain elevated across major corridors.
  • Capacity remains tightly constrained across the trade.
  • Early booking is needed, with Northern Europe ports experiencing two-week booking delays. Carriers are communicating that space will remain tight through June and into early July.
  • Minimum advance booking of two to three weeks is required, with four weeks necessary to secure space on peak lanes.
  • Equipment shortages persist, with insufficient containers and gears available to move all committed cargo.
  • Carriers anticipate a quieter market in August, which should provide some relief on capacity.
  • Schedule reliability has improved, rising by 12.5% compared to the previous month, bringing overall trade reliability to 72.5%. ICL remains the top performer, followed by ACL and MSC, whilst Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, OOCL, and Evergreen all operate above 60% reliability.
  • Blank sailings account for approximately 18% of the global blank sailing schedule on the Transatlantic trade, which is considerably less severe than on Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes but still reduces available capacity.
  • European ports remain under sustained pressure, with Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Antwerp operating with elevated yard utilisation. Bremerhaven and Genoa continue facing berth delays and rail-related disruptions that cascade into vessel schedule impacts.
Benelux

Antwerp

  • PSA 913: Yard utilisation at normal levels of 80–85%, with reefer utilisation at 50–55%.
  • PSA 869: Yard utilisation at 70–75%, with reefer utilisation at 70–75%.
  • AGW: Yard utilisation increased at 75–80%, with reefer utilisation at 55–60%. Cargo opening times now required six days prior to vessel estimated time of arrival.
  • An ongoing pilot strike is causing disruptions to arriving and departing vessels, resulting in schedule delays.

Rotterdam

  • ECT: Yard utilisation remains elevated at 80–85%.
  • RWG: Yard utilisation remains at critical levels of 80–85%.
  • Delta II: Yard utilisation is low at 40–45%, with reefer utilisation at 30–35%.
  • APMT Maasvlakte II: Yard utilisation elevated at 85–90%.

USA

Ocean

  • LA/LB: 0 vessels waiting, with a 6-day dwell on the rail terminals.
  • Oakland: 1 vessel waiting, with a 6-day rail dwell.
  • Seattle and Tacoma: 0 vessels waiting, with a 5-day dwell on rail.
  • Vancouver: 1 vessel waiting, with a 6-day dwell on rail.
  • NY/NJ: 5 vessels waiting (up by 4), with a 5-day dwell on rail.
  • Savannah: 4 vessels waiting, with a 2-day dwell on rail.

Europe Public Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

July 2026

  • 3 July (Fri): Belarus
  • 5 July (Sun): Czech Republic, Slovakia
  • 6 July (Mon): Czech Republic, Isle of Man, Lithuania
  • 11 July (Sat): Belgium*
  • 12 July (Sun): UK (United Kingdom)*
  • 13 July (Mon): Montenegro, UK (United Kingdom)*
  • 14 July (Tue): France, Montenegro
  • 15 July (Wed): Türkiye
  • 20 July (Mon): North Cyprus
  • 21 July (Tue): Belgium
  • 25 July (Sat): Spain*, Spain*
  • 28 July (Tue): Faroe Islands*, San Marino, Spain*
  • 29 July (Wed): Faroe Islands

August 2026

  • 1 August (Sat): Andorra*, North Cyprus, Switzerland
  • 2 August (Sun): Andorra*, Macedonia
  • 3 August (Mon): Andorra*, Guernsey and Alderney*, Iceland*, Ireland (Eire), Macedonia, UK (United Kingdom)*
  • 5 August (Wed): Croatia, Spain*
  • 14 August (Fri): Holy See (Vatican City), Saint Helena*
  • 15 August (Sat): Andorra, Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, France, Germany*, Greece, Holy See (Vatican City), Italy, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland*
  • 20 August (Thu): Estonia, Hungary
  • 21 August (Fri): Hungary
  • 24 August (Mon): Ukraine
  • 25 August (Tue): North Cyprus
  • 27 August (Thu): Moldova
  • 29 August (Sat): Slovakia
  • 30 August (Sun): North Cyprus, Türkiye
  • 31 August (Mon): Gibraltar, Guernsey and Alderney, Isle of Man, Jersey, Moldova, Saint Helena, UK (United Kingdom), UK (United Kingdom)

September 2026

  • 2 September (Wed): Spain, Transdniestria (PMR)
  • 3 September (Thu): San Marino
  • 5 September (Sat): Albania
  • 6 September (Sun): Bulgaria
  • 7 September (Mon): Albania, Bulgaria, Luxembourg
  • 8 September (Tue): Andorra, Liechtenstein, Macedonia, Malta, Spain
  • 10 September (Thu): Gibraltar, Switzerland
  • 11 September (Fri): Spain
  • 15 September (Tue): Slovakia, Spain
  • 17 September (Thu): Holy See (Vatican City), Spain
  • 20 September (Sun): Germany
  • 21 September (Mon): Malta, Switzerland
  • 22 September (Tue): Bulgaria
  • 24 September (Thu): Austria
  • 25 September (Fri): Switzerland
  • 27 September (Sun): Belgium
  • 28 September (Mon): Czech Republic
Traffic bans

01.07.2026

  • AT | Austria 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00
  • CH | Switzerland 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00

02.07.2026

  • AT | Austria 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00
  • CH | Switzerland 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00

03.07.2026

  • AT | Austria 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00
  • CZ | Czech Republic 17:00–21:00
  • GR | Greece 16:00–21:00; 15:00–22:00
  • PL | Poland 18:00–22:00
  • RO | Romania 12:00–22:00; 18:00–22:00; 06:00–22:00
  • CH | Switzerland 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00

04.07.2026

  • AT | Austria 07:00–15:00; 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00; 15:00–24:00; 08:00–15:00
  • HR | Croatia 04:00–14:00
  • CZ | Czech Republic 07:00–13:00
  • FR | France 22:00–24:00
  • GR | Greece 08:00–22:00; 08:00–16:00
  • LU | Luxembourg 21:30–24:00; 23:30–24:00
  • DE | Germany 07:00–20:00
  • PL | Poland 08:00–14:00
  • RO | Romania 06:00–22:00
  • SK | Slovakia 07:00–19:00
  • SI | Slovenia 08:00–13:00; 06:00–16:00
  • CH | Switzerland 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00
  • HU | Hungary 15:00–24:00
  • IT | Italy 08:00–16:00
  • LI | Liechtenstein 00:00–05:00; 22:00–24:00

The route ahead

The information that is available in the Zencargo Market Update comes from a variety of online sources, partners and our own teams. Click below to learn more about how Zencargo can help make your supply chain your competitive advantage.

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