Weekly Market Updates

Zencargo Market Update: 14th November

Nov 14, 2022

Falling ocean freight demand reflected in recent Chinese export figures.

Recent Chinese export figures demonstrate weak demand for shipping from China to Europe and the US. Total exports from China fell 0.3% in October compared with 2021, in stark contrast to the 4.5% growth which was predicted by economists. This decrease has been most notable in exports to North America and Europe with October figures falling by 13% and 9% respectively. 

Port of Liverpool strike update 

The strike which was set to take place from the 14th till the 21st of November has been called off as Unite Union members voted in favour of the proposed 9% base pay increase. Peel Ports who operate the Port of Liverpool have thanked their customers, employees and broader community for their patience during the negotiations. 

China

Ocean

  • Due to poor consumer demand and weak predictions for consumer spending over the holiday period, Chinese exports to the USA and Europe have fallen 
    • Exports fell by 13% to North America and 9% to Europe in October. 
    • This is also reflected in China’s overall exports which have fallen in October for the first time since May 2020.
    • Transpacific rates show signs of possible stabilisation, however Asia to Europe rates continue to decrease. 
    • Blank sailings for December are still yet to be finalised.

Air

Central China to USA and Europe 

  • From SHA to Europe and the USA  rates have remained stable compared with last week as volume has remained low.
  • From NGB to Europe and the USA , rates have decreased this week, with the final rate being provided on a case by case basis. 

North China to USA and Europe 

  • From TSN to Europe, rates have seen a slight decrease compared to last week and represent a significant reduction from rates during the same period in 2021.
    • Air China, Lufthansa and Singapore airlines can provide spot rates for dense cargo on passenger flights to Europe.
    • Korean Air and Asiana Airlines can provide earlier estimated time of arrivals on their freight flights, with Asiana Airlines providing a competitive rate similar to passenger flights.
  • Similar to Europe, rates from TSN to USA  have seen a slight decrease compared to last week and represent a significant reduction from rates during the same period in 2021. 
    • Japan Airlines, Cathay Pacific and All Nippon Airways can provide spot rates for dense cargo on passenger flights to Europe.
    • Korean Air and Asiana Airlines can provide earlier estimated time of arrivals on their freight flights, with Asiana Airlines providing a competitive rate similar to passenger flights.
  • From PEK to Europe and the USA, rates have seen a slight decrease compared to last week however space still remains tight. 
    • For flights from PEK to the USA the available carriers include Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways and Cathay Pacific. 
      • Due to less available services on PEK to the USA,  some airlines are uploading less volume or have cancelled or rescheduled their flights. 
  • From TAO to Europe, rates have decreased this week compared to last week.
    • ETD for new bookings is the 17th November.
  • From TAO to the USA, rates have remained the same this week compared to last week.
    • ETD for new bookings is the 17th November.
    • All Nippon Airways can load 10 tons of cargo per week.
    • Asiana Airways can load 2 tons of cargo per week.
  • Compared to last week, rates have remained the same from CKG to Europe and have increased slightly from CKG to the USA. 

South China to USA and Europe 

  • From CAN to the USA and Europe rates have remained stable since last week and rates can be negotiated with carriers on a case-by-case basis. 
  • From SZX to Europe and the USA, the market is stable and rates can be negotiated with carriers on a case-by-case basis. 
  • From XMN to Europe rates have remained the same compared to last week, however rates from XMN to the USA have seen a slight decrease. Rates can be negotiated with carriers on a case-by-case basis. 
India

Ocean

  • Volume is down this week due to reduced demand and a long running monsoon season.
    • Demand is expected to increase in Q1 of 2024 due to the peak season for melon and grape exports. 
      • Rates are expected to rise during this time due to decreased capacity. 
  • Space is generally available on lanes to both the USA and Europe.
  • Carriers are omitting some European port calls and a potential for increased blank sailings as demand is low.
  • Schedule reliability has seen an improvement of 15% since September, reflecting a year on year increase of 3%. 
USA

Ocean

  • Rates have continued to decline on transpacific trade lanes however the intensity of the decline has steadily been decreasing in comparison to rates from Asia to Europe.
    • Carriers are continuing to balance capacity through blank sailings to meet demand.
    • Volume reductions are easing in October and important levels remain the same as September.
  • Schedule reliability has improved as congestion at ports is easing.
    • West Coast reliability is currently sitting at 32% up 22% from the same time in 2021.
    • East Coast reliability is currently 21% an increase of 7% from 2021 at the same time.
    • The number of container ships waiting to berth at ports on the US East Coast has dropped from 84 ships in September to 53 in October. 
Benelux

Ocean

  • The latest strike action at the Port of Antwerp in Belgium took place for a single day on the 9th of November.
    • While this resulted in delays for shippers on the 9th and 10th of November as workers downed tools, there are no major ongoing delays reported. 
    • The strikes are a result of ongoing pay disputes between port operators and workers who have cited that pay is not in line with the rising cost of living. 
UK

UK 

Ocean

  • Strike action at the Port of Liverpool which was planned to take place from the 14th till the 21st of November has been called off.
    • This news comes as members of Unite union and Port of Liverpool operator Peel reached an agreement over pay. 
  • The UK Government has awarded the Port of Aberdeen more than £200,000 in order to accelerate the ports sustainability goals.
    • The Port of Aberdeen is aiming to achieve net zero emissions by 2040.
    • The port is also currently developing a detailed project plan for the world’s first hydrogen-powered, zero-emission crossing to Norway in 2024.

Road

  • The RHA has called on the Chancellor to introduce a fuel duty rebate for HGVs and coaches of at least 15 pence per litre to help bring down prices.
    • The request has come in the face of rising fuel costs and is aimed at reducing operating costs and easing the cost of living

 

European Bank Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

November 15th – Austria, Belgium

November 16th – Germany

November 17th – Czech Republic, Slovakia 

November 18th – Croatia, Latvia 

November 30th – Romania

December 1st – Portugal, Romania

December 2nd – Romania

December 3rd – Spain

December 6th – Finland, Spain 

December 8th – Albania, Andorra, Austria, Italy, Liechtenstein, Macedonia, Malta, Monaco, Portugal, San Marino, Spain, Switzerland* 

December 13th – Malta

 

*Not in all regions

The route ahead

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