Capacity adjustments have not been enough to match demand decline

When COVID-19 first broke out at the start of 2020, demand for container shipping decreased rapidly at first and carriers acted quickly to match the pace of the drop in demand. 

In September 2022, we saw a drop in demand again which continued all the way until the end of 2022. 

However an observation by Sea Intelligence suggests that the adjustment in capacity in 2022 was not as effective as the reaction in 2020. 

As adjustment in capacity has not been able to match the decline in demand, freight rates have dropped across the board. 

China

Ocean

  • In a recent report by the Financial Times, retail companies, particularly fashion brands, may start to shift away from mass textile production in China.
    • A combination of supply chain chaos, higher costs and working  conditions in China have led to western retailers to rethink their sourcing strategies.
    • Mango and Dr Martens have recently signalled their intention to shift manufacturing out of China and South-East Asia. 
    • Using Dr Martens as an example, 12% of its production for its 2022 autumn/winter collection was manufactured in China, which is significantly lower in comparison to 27% in 2020. 
  • Equipment
Carriers POL 20GP 40GP 40HQ
HPL NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
YANTIAN Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
QINGDAO Normal Normal Normal
XIAMEN Normal Normal Normal
DACHANBAY Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
MSK QINGDAO Normal Normal Normal
DALIAN Normal Normal Normal
TIANJIN Normal Normal Normal
SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
Nanjing Normal Normal Normal
Xiamen Normal Normal Normal
YANTIAN Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
NANSHA Normal Normal Normal
HONGKONG Normal Normal Normal
SHANTOU Normal Normal Normal
ONE YANTIAN Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
XINGANG Normal Normal Normal
QINGDAO Normal Normal Normal
SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
ZIM XIANGANG Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
YANTIAN Normal Normal Normal
DACHANBAY Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
HMM SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
NANSHA Normal Normal Normal
YANTIAN Normal Shortage Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
MSC SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
YANTIAN Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
EMC YANTIAN Normal Shortage Normal
XIAMEN Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
QINGDAO Normal Normal Normal
OOCL YANTIAN Normal Normal Normal
NANSHA Normal Normal Normal
SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
HONGKONG Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
CMA QINGDAO Normal Normal Normal
SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
XINGANG Normal Normal Normal
YANTIAN Normal Normal Normal
XIAMEN Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
cosco YANTIAN Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal
SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
QINGDAO Normal Normal Normal
DALIAN Normal Normal Normal
XINGANG Normal Normal Normal
YML YANTIAN Normal Normal Normal
NANSHA Normal Normal Normal
SHANGHAI Normal Normal Normal
QINGDAO Normal Normal Normal
HONGKONG Normal Normal Normal
NINGBO Normal Normal Normal
SHEKOU Normal Normal Normal

 

Air

Central China to USA and Europe 

  • As factories have fully resumed production, more cargo is ready to ship. 
  • Rates have increased from SHA to Europe and to the USA as the market is busier and more space is being booked. Rates to the USA are not as stable as rates to Europe. 
  • From NGB to Europe and the USA, rates have increased this week and final rates depend on a case-by-case basis. 

North China to USA and Europe 

  • From TSN to Europe and the USA, the market is slow this week and rates are stable. . 
    • Space can be booked 3-4 days in advance from TSN to Europe and 4 to 5 days ahead from TSN to the USA. 
    • Air China, Lufthansa and Singapore Airlines can provide spot rates for dense cargo on their passenger flights from TSN to Europe.  
    • Japan Airlines, All Nippon and Cathay Pacific can provide spot rates for dense cargo on passenger flights from TSN to the USA. 
    • Korean Air and Asiana Airlines can provide freighter flights with earlier ETDs on both routes. 
  • From PEK to Europe and the USA rates are stable and the air market is slow this week. Space to Europe can be booked 3-4 days in advance. Space to the USA can be booked 4-5 days in advance. 
    • There is still reduced service available to the USA as some carriers are taking on less volume than normal or have cancelled and rescheduled flights. 
    • We advise checking space and rates on a case-by-case basis. 

South China to USA and Europe 

  • From  CAN to Europe and the USA rates have decreased this week as the market is still weak.
    •  High density and big volume shipments can be booked at a good rate.
  • From SZX to Europe rates remain the same as last week but have decreased to the USA.
USA

Ocean

  • This year, January import volumes at the 10 largest US container ports dropped by 17.9% compared to January 2022. 
    • The biggest volume declines occurred at US West Coast ports. 
    • There were 23.5% fewer containers discharged at US West Coast ports in January 2022 compared to 2021. 
      • Volumes at the Port of Long Beach saw the biggest drop of 32.3% compared to the previous year. 
    • Analysing the US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, there was a 12.6% decrease in import containers.
      • Volumes at New York/New Jersey saw the biggest contraction of 20.6% compared to the previous year. 
  • The contract negotiations between the International Longshore & Warehouse Union (ILWU) and 22,000 port workers have resumed. 
    • After a hiatus caused by a dispute over a jurisdictional issue in Seattle, both parties have agreed to set the matter aside and get back to negotiations for the new contract which expired last July. 
    • There’s been increasing pressure to complete the new contract negotiations as volumes have shifted to US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports.
      • The initial reason for the move to other ports was to avoid any disruption caused by the ILWU negotiations. 
    • As a result of the delay in contract negotiations, there has been some concern that this may result in the loss of business for US West Coast Ports. 

Road

  • Truckers at the Port of LA and Long Beach have expressed interest for port authorities to pave the way for a common platform for them to make appointments across 12 container terminals at the gateway complex.
    • The California Trucking Association and Harbor Trucking Association have said that a platform will help the ports stem the loss of cargo shifting to other US gateways. 
    • In a letter to port authorities, the associations cite that a common platform would be beneficial for reducing costs and boosting productivity. 
    • The platform will give truckers full visibility of all the terminals, availability and bottlenecks which will help them to co-ordinate their moves. 
Benelux

Ocean

  • At the PSA terminal at the Port of Antwerp, yard utilisation at 913 is stable. Yard 869 is heavily occupied and operational restrictions are expected. 
    • Ongoing civil works at 869 is temporarily influencing the stack capacity. 
  • At the Europe Container Terminals (ECT) at Rotterdam, the yard operations are normal. Reefer plug utilisation has increased and labour availability is at a good level. 
    • Import dwell times have also reduced compared to the last update. 
  • At the Rotterdam World Gateway (RWG), yard level is at high utilisation however,  import dwell times have decreased. Labour availability is at a sufficient level and reefer plug utilisation is good. Cargo opening times for export cargo at RWG is 8 days before vessel estimated time of arrival.
UK

Ocean

  • The UK government has given £60 million in funding for the development of green maritime technologies. 
    • The funding comes from the government’s Clean Maritime Demonstration Competition which focuses on developing clean maritime technologies including hydrogen, ammonia, electric and wind power.
    • The UK government is funding the development of new clean maritime technology across a 2 year period. 
    • The funding comes from the wider £206 million UK Shipping Office for Reducing Emissions (UK SHORE) scheme, announced in March 2022.

Road

  • The Border Force has been on strike from 7am, 17th February until today 7am, 20th February. 
    • The strike was confined to Dover, Calais, Dunkirk and the Channel Tunnel Terminal at Coquelles. 
    • The Government last week warned, “Hauliers who are moving goods during the proposed strike action should be prepared for potential disruption and longer queues at ports and inland border facilities. Please check with your operator before travelling, be prepared for delays and carefully plan your movements if they coincide with days of strike action.”

European Bank Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

 

February 20 – Luxembourg*

February 21 – Portugal*, Spain* 

February 28 – Spain*

March 1 – Bosnia Herzegovina*, Spain *, Switzerland* 

March 3 – Belgium 

March 8 – Belarus, Germany*, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine

March 11 – Lithuania

March 13 – Spain*

March 15 – Hungary

March 17 – Ireland (Eire)

March 19 – Austria*, Malta

March 20 – Spain*

March 25 – Cyprus, Greece

March 31 – Malta

*Not in all regions

The route ahead

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