In Focus: Carriers announce GRIs in April

Following the Chinese New Year holiday, there has been a slight uptick in demand, especially from BCO  orders. This has prompted carriers to announce a GRI for April.

However, overall demand remains weak, and GRIs may not be sustainable. Nevertheless, it is causing disruption in the spot market at a time when medium-sized customers are looking to commit to quarterly deals.

Economic experts forecast a 2% increase in demand worldwide for 2024, with Europe expecting a 0.6% rise, the USA anticipating a 2.1% increase, and China projecting a 4.7% growth.

Capacity is expected to increase by 11% in 2024 and by 7% in 2025, with an order book totalling 7 million TEUs. There are concerns about overcapacity in the long term, although the resolution of the Red Sea crisis could significantly impact this outlook.

Ocean
  • Rates declined in the second half of March.
    • To balance supply and demand, carriers have announced General Rate Increases.
    • The GRI announcement has caused market uncertainty.
    • Negotiations for quarterly deals have been impacted by the GRI announcement, complicating the finalisation of discussions at the anticipated rate.
    • Carriers are either awaiting final decisions or adjusting their proposals upward, leading to speculation in setting future rates.
Air

Central China to Europe

  • From SHA to Europe, e-commerce businesses have been holding back on booking space until they get a lower price. Rates are expected to decrease slightly because of this. 
  • From NGB to Europe, rates have decreased this week and final rates depend on a case-by-case basis. 
    • We suggest booking space 4-5 days prior to the cargo ready date.  

North China to Europe

  • Rates from Korean Airlines from TSN to Europe are high and fluctuating. Asiana Airlines are confirming rates on a case-by-case basis. 
    • The market is busier compared to last week and space is fully booked this week. 
  • On DLC/PEK to Europe, rates with most airlines are increasing this week. 
    • Space is fully booked this week. 
  • Space is a little tight from TAO to Europe. Estimated Time of Departure is 3-4 days after booking. 
    • Rates have remained the same as last week and spot rates can be applied for dense cargo. 

 

South China to Europe

  • From CAN to Europe, it is still the peak season for e-commerce shipments, therefore rates are higher. 
  • From SZX to Europe, the market is busy and carriers have increased their rates.
  • From XMN to Europe, there has been a significant increase in e-commerce cargo and rates have increased significantly. 
    • Space is tight and final rates will need to be checked on a case-by-case basis. 
Ocean
  • THE Alliance is planning to reintroduce 2 Transpacific routes to the Pacific North West and the US East Coast in April.
    • Meanwhile ONE and Wan Hai are forming a new partnership focused on the Pacific SW, set to commence in May.
    • These strategic manoeuvres aim to assure customers that THE Alliance carriers will maintain competitiveness in the Transpacific market despite Hapag-Lloyd’s departure next year.
Air

Central China to USA

  • From SHA to the USA, e-commerce businesses have been holding back on booking space until they get a lower price. Rates are expected to decrease slightly because of this. 
  • From NGB to the USA, rates remain stable this week and final rates depend on a case-by-case basis. 
    • We suggest booking space 4-5 days prior to the cargo ready date.  

North China to USA

  • Rates from Korean Airlines from TSN to the USA have increased and are fluctuating. 
    • Asiana Airlines are confirming rates on a case-by-case basis. 
    • Space is fully booked this week. 
  • On DLC/PEK to the USA, rates with most airlines have increased this week. 
    • Dense cargo can be booked with spot rates.
    • Space is fully booked this week. 
  • The market from TAO to the US is stable this week. 
    • Space is still tight and air freight rates remain similar to last week. 

South China to USA

  • From CAN to the USA, it is still the peak season for e-commerce shipments, therefore rates are higher.
  • From SZX to the USA, carriers have increased rates this week. 
  • From XMN to the USA, rates have increased and space is tight due to high demand for e-commerce cargo. 
Ocean
  • Rates remain stable from Europe to North America.
    • Carriers are maintaining higher rate levels, which increased due to the Red Sea Crisis. 
    • Although there has not been a large increase in demand, capacity has been removed from the market.
USA

Ocean

  • Here is the most recent port update from the US: 
    • The Ports of LA and Long Beach have 1 vessel waiting to berth.
      • Rail dwell is at 9 days due to the recent closure of Rail Pier 400 for repair work. 
      • Rail dwells are expected to gradually improve. 
    • Oakland has 0 vessels waiting with a 6 day dwell on rail.
    • Seattle and Tacoma have 0 vessels waiting with a 4 day dwell on rail.
    • New York/ New Jersey has 2 vessels waiting to berth with a 4 day dwell on the rail.
    • Savannah has 4 vessels waiting with a 2 day dwell on rail. 
Benelux

Ocean

  • Here is an update from Hapag-Lloyd on ports in the Benelux region:
    • Antwerp, Belgium
      • PSA 913: Repair operations are still ongoing after a crane collapsed in part of the yard. 
        • Yard utilisation stands at 75-80%, with reefers at 65-75%  and empty containers ranging from 45-50%.
      • PSA 869: Yard utilisation is at 45-50%, with reefers at 55-60%, and empty containers at 60-65%  utilisation.
      • AGW: Antwerp Gateways yard utilisation is at 60-65%. Reefer plugs are at 55-60% and empty containers are at 60-65%. 

 

  • Rotterdam, The Netherlands
    • ECT: Yard utilisation is at 60-65%.
    • RWG: Yard utilisation is at 60 – 65% and the berth line-up is high. 
United Kingdom

Road 

  • The UK Department for Transport has warned of delays at the Port of Dover and the Eurostar this Easter weekend. 
    • Operation Brock has been reinstated on the M20 to help manage the expected increased volume of traffic around the holiday. 
    • All HGV traffic headed to the Port of Dover or the Eurotunnel will have to follow signs to join Operation Brock at the M20’s Junction 8. 
    • Any EU-bound HGVs who attempt to use another route will risk landing a £300 fine.

 

European Bank Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.

March 28 – Denmark, Portugal*, Spain

March 29 – Austria*, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France*, Germany, Hungary, Ireland (Eire*), Latvia, Luxembourg*, Malta, Netherlands*, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden

March 30 – Sweden*

March 31 – Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany*, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Sweden

April 1 – Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland (Eire), Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta*, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain*, Sweden

April 10 – Spain*, 

April 23 – Spain*

April 25 – Italy, Portugal

April 27 – Netherlands, Slovenia

May 1 – Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Polan, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden

May 2 – Romania*, Slovenia, Spain*

May 3 – Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Poland, Romania

May 4 – Austria*, Bulgaria, Cyprus*, Latvia

May 5 – Bulgaria, Cyprus*, Greece, Lithuania, Netherlands*, Romania

*Not in all regions

The route ahead

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