Welcome to the Zencargo weekly freight market update – the latest news from our freight and procurement teams on the real experience of shippers.
This week: Ocean carriers have great expectations for Q1 profits.

 


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In focus: Ocean carriers have great expectations for Q1 profits

The profitability in the first quarter of the year for ocean carriers is expected to be better than predicted as the industry is looking at another record profitable quarter.

For example, ONE released its Q3 earnings for the period to 31 December and has upgraded its financial year profit forecast by $3.6bn.

Despite disruptions in the supply chain, carriers such as ONE and Hapag-Lloyd have announced that this profitability has increased because short-term and long-term rates are higher.

However, Hapag-Lloyd has warned that this development was ‘accompanied by a sharp rise in transport expenses’ due to major disruptions in the supply chain.

 

Ocean

Asia → North America (Transpacific Eastbound)

Rates

  • Rates have remained relatively the same as China has slowed down factory production and port operations due to Chinese New Year. 

Capacity

  • The schedule reliability from Asia to the US West Coast is at 10.1% in November/December 2021.
    • On a year-on-year level, schedule reliability decreased by 11.9% percent compared to 2020.
    • The average delay for late vessel arrivals increased to 15.07 days in November/December 2021. This is the highest overall recorded figure on the trade lane.
    • On a year-on-year level, the delay increased by 7.06 days.
  • Schedule reliability is at 19.2% to the US East Coast in November/December 2021. 
    • On a year-on-year level, schedule reliability decreased by 7.1% compared to November/December 2020 which was at 26.2%. 
    • The average delay for late vessel arrivals improved in November/December 2021, decreasing by 0.7 days month-on-month to 8.46 days. 
    • On a year-on-year level, this was 3.54 days higher than November 2020 levels. 
    • The average delay for all vessel arrivals decreased month-on-month in November/December 2021 by 1.31 days to 5.83 days.

Ports

    • The ports of LA and Long Beach have 89 vessels waiting outside of ports. 
      • Sea Intelligence indicates that the number of days vessels are waiting is around 15 days for the West Coast. However, this depends on the carrier. 
      • The average delays on the East Coast is at 8.46 days. However, the number of vessels waiting is a lot smaller than on the West Coast.
        • At the ports of New York and New Jersey, the weekly average waiting time for an anchor is 2 days. 
    • The Ports of LA and Long Beach have delayed the ‘Container Dwell Fee’ to 11th February.
      • The two ports have seen a combined decline of 68% in ageing cargo on the docks since the program was announced on 25th October. 
      • Under the temporary policy, ocean carriers can be charged for each import container dwelling from nine days or more at the terminal. 
      • The ports plan to charge ocean carriers $100 per container, increasing in $100 increments per container, per day until the container leaves the terminal.
City Soonest Availability Date Important Note! Notice Required (Estimated)
Atlanta 2/10 Export Congestion / limited hazardous availability – chassis shortage 1.5 weeks
Baltimore 2/21 Chassis shortage 3 weeks
Birmingham 2/4 Very Limited availability for triaxles/overweight < 1 week
Boston No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Buffalo No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Charleston 2/17 Local 2/25 Road SPOT PRICING WILL APPLY Extreme chassis shortage / export congestion 4 weeks local / 5 weeks road
Charlotte 2/14 Chassis shortage 2 weeks
Chicago 2/10 SPOT PRICING MAY APPLY Export Congestion, chassis shortage 1.5 weeks
Cincinnati 2/10 Chassis shortage 1.5 weeks
Cleveland No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch Export Congestion
Columbus 2/7 1 week
Dallas 2/8 1 week
Denver No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Detroit No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
El Paso No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Houston 2/17 Local 2/28 Road SPOT PRICING MAY APPLY Export Congestion / Limited availability / Chassis + Triaxle shortage 2.5 weeks local/4 weeks road
Huntsville 2/18 2.5 weeks
Indianapolis No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Jacksonville 2/11 Limited Haz 1.5 weeks
Kansas City 2/15 Export Congestion / very limited triaxles / chassis shortage 2 weeks
Laredo No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Los Angeles No new business being accepted; only existing business Limited reefer & hazardous availability Not accepting new orders
Louisville 2/7 SPOT PRICING MAY APPLY Export Congestion & chassis shortage 1 weeks
Memphis 2/8 Export Congestion – EXTREMELY limited hazardous coverage, chassis shortage 1 week
Miami 2/10 SPOT PRICING WILL APPLY VERY limited availability out of SFCT, Limited haz availability 1.5 weeks
Minneapolis 2/4 1 week
Mobile LOCAL 2/7 ROAD 3/1 SPOT PRICING MAY APPLY Equipment shortage and very limited avail for moves over 300 miles or OW loads 1 week local / 4 weeks road
Nashville 2/15 Export Congestion, chassis shortage 2 weeks
New Orleans 2/16 SPOT PRICING MAY APPLY Limited on triaxles/overweight & chassis shortage 2 weeks
NY/NJ 3/1 SPOT PRICING MAY APPLY LIMITED EXPORT AVAILABILITY – Limited haz coverage 4 weeks
Norfolk 2/25 SPOT PRICING MAY APPLY Extremely limited avail for: MD, NJ, NY, OH, WV, PA,IL moves, limited NC / chassis shortage 4 weeks
Oakland 2/8 Export Congestion, chassis shortage 1 week
Omaha 2/8 Very limited triaxles 1 week
Philadelphia 2/8 Limited availability for exports, chassis shortage 1 weeks
Phoenix No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Pittsburgh No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Portland 2/25 SPOT PRICING WILL APPLY Chassis shortage, Very limited truck availability 5 weeks
Saint Louis 2/10 Export Congestion – limited availability for triaxles, chassis shortage 1.5 weeks
Salt Lake City No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
San Antonio No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Savannah 2/21 SPOT PRICING WILL APPLY Export Congestion / very limited haz and triaxle availability, chassis shortage 3 weeks
Seattle/Tacoma IMPORTS 2/28 EXPORTS 4/1 SPOT PRICING WILL APPLY Limited moves out of Tacoma ports, chassis shortage 4 weeks for imports
Tampa No current capacity issues, please send your dispatch
Wilmington 2/11

Asia → Europe (Far East Westbound)

Rates

  • Rates have remained relatively the same as China has slowed down factory production and port operations due to Chinese New Year. 

Capacity

  • Schedule reliability from Asia to Europe is at 22.9% in November/December 2021. This is the lowest recorded figure for this month.
  • On a year-on-year level, schedule reliability decreased by 17.7% compared to November /December 2020 when schedule reliability was at 40.6%.
  • The average time that vessels are delayed by is 9 days. This is the highest recorded figure on this trade lane.

Air

Asia 

Central China to USA and Europe

  • The majority of factories will remain closed until 16th February because of the Chinese New Year Holiday. 
    • The rate will not increase this week from SHA Airport. If cargo can be prepared in advance, lower costs may be applied. 
    • Most cargo flights will not be cancelled, unless they are travelling to the Middle East. 
    • The epidemic controls at PVG airport are still in place however, there are no rules that are specific to Omicron due to the day-to-day control on COVID-19.
      • Over 40% of cargo flights are cancelled
      • Terminals are at 50% in terms of labour resources.
    • Rates from Ningbo airport to the USA and Europe have decreased this week. 
      • Rates and space will need to be checked with carriers on a case-by-case basis. 

 

North China to USA and Europe

  • Factories are expected to open after 10th February. The air market for TSN Airport will therefore be normal after the Chinese New Year holiday. 
    • Truck service will also be in full operation from 15th February.
    • Rates are lower for both USA and Europe and space is currently better compared to the end of January. 
    • Please check on a case-by-case basis. 
  • From PEK airport, rates remain the same level as the last week before the run up to Chinese New Year to Europe and the USA. 
    • Space remains tight and it better to confirm rates and space at 3-4 days in advance, 
    • Heavy and dense cargo will have special rates and should be checked on a case-by-case basis. 
    • Normal trucking service will resume from 9th February. 

South China to USA and Europe

  • From CAN Airport, shipments need to be checked with carriers on a case-by-case basis to both destinations.
  • From SZX Airport, the air rate has decreased to both destinations. 
  • At XMN, some factories have not resumed word and freight has reduced. However, please check with your carrier on a case-by-case basis. 

Americas

  • American Airlines is adding a service between New York and Doha and is resuming services between Charlotte and Rome. 
    • It is increasing international capacity by shifting wide-bodied flights operating on short haul routes Trans Atlantic routes including Barcelona, Lisbon and Venice. 
    • However, with the rise in passenger bookings, cargo-only flights are being restricted despite the high demand in cargo flights. 
    • In response to handling demands, American airlines are rolling out a new AI booking system which will allow customers to book complex shipments themselves. 

Europe/UK

  • EFW has delivered its third A231 converted freighter to BBAM which will enter service as Lufthansa’s first A321 freighter.
    • The aircraft will be flown by Lufthansa City Line on behalf of Lufthansa Cargo. 
    • The aircraft can transport more than 28 tonnes of gross payload per flight.
    • The model offers 14 full-container positions on the main deck plus up to 10 container positions and pallet loading capabilities on the lower deck. 
    • A second A321 will be joining the Lufthansa fleet later this year. 
    • The aircraft will be used on intra-European services and will target E-commerce volumes. 

Road and Rail

European Road Freight Rates Hit New Record High

The Ti, Upply & IRU European Road Freight Rates Benchmark for Q4 2021 shows that prices ended on historic highs across Europe. This was driven by a combination of the lack of HGV drivers over the year, supply chain congestion, supply shortages, cost increases and spiking demand from economic reopening across the region.

  • The Q4 2021 European Road Freight Rate benchmark index stood at 108.3, 1.1 points higher than in Q3 2021 and 3.2 points higher than in Q4 2020.
  • Q4 2021 is the 6th consecutive quarter of rate increases across Europe. 
  • Rising fuel costs, increased by around 25% YoY, in some major European markets. The ongoing driver shortage has helped push up road freight costs and rates across Europe.
  • New data from the IRU has revealed the severity of driver shortages in 2021 across Europe. This includes a shortage of up to 100,000 drivers in the UK and over 60,000 drivers in Germany and Poland.
  • Freight rates are expected to remain high in Q1 2022 as demand will stay strong, costs will remain high and capacity is still constrained.

EU Mobility Package – Now in Effect

Last year, the European Commission adopted a Mobility Package to govern road deliveries in EU countries. The changes to the Mobility Package will safeguard the working rights of truck drivers in Europe by imposing work, rest, and cabotage regimes.

The new rules on posting of drivers in road transport (Directive 2020/1057) came into effect from 1st February 2022.

These initiatives will affect the planning of the transport and costs. We have identified the following as concerns to be considered in the foreseeable future:-

  • Even bigger pressure on capacity than the current situation.
  • More complicated administration and documentation
  • Increased Environmental impact (additional mileage)
  • Expected cost increases
  • Lower productivity

However, given that poor working conditions have resulted in drivers leaving the profession in some countries, these measures could help drivers stay in the industry for longer. 

Upcoming UK Customs Changes from July 2022

From 1st July 2022, products of animal and plant origin coming into the UK will be subjected to additional checks. Firstly, there will be checks to confirm that the goods have the right commercial documentation and certificates/licenses. Before goods depart, there will be a check on the seal applied to the consignment for identification purposes. On arrival, goods will be physically checked.

The goods listed below will become subject to additional checks:

  • All meat products
  • All regulated plants and plant products
  • All remaining regulated animal by-products  
  • All remaining ‘high-risk’ food not of animal origin.

From the 1st of July 2022 goods listed above will no longer be checked at the destination place, they will be inspected at border control posts and control points.

From 1st September 2022, dairy products will also have the same checks as above when they are imported from the EU.

From 1st November 2022, checks on all animal origin products inclusive of by-products will be introduced. Live animal inspections will take place at border control posts. If there are no border inspection posts at the point of entry, the inspections will be carried out at destination.

European Bank Holidays

We anticipate a shortage of availability and the occurrence of delays around the bank holiday periods. Plan ahead and allow extra time for your products to be delivered.
February 8th – SI
February 10th – ES*
February 15th – RS
February 16th – LT, RS
February 23rd – RU
February 24th – EE
February 28th – AD, ES
*Not in all regions

The route ahead

The information that is available in the Weekly Market Update comes from a variety of online sources, partners and our own teams. Click below to learn more about how Zencargo can help make your supply chain your competitive advantage.

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